2009 Trade Deadline Preview: Milwaukee Brewers
by Charlie on Jul 18, 2009 2:57 PM EDT
13 comments
Buyers or sellers?
Buyers. The Brewers are just three games back of the Cardinals in the N.L. Central, and three games behind the Giants in the Wild Card race.
Short-term need
Whether or not they're ready to admit it, the Brewers' best chance of upgrading would be grabbing a catcher who can hit even a little. So far in 2009, the Brewers have wasted 309 punchless plate appearances on Jason Kendall, many from the leadoff spot. No amount of nice work with pitchers can make up for a .282 slugging percentage. Milwaukee might be wise to talk to a team like the Pirates, who need prospects and have two credible starting catchers in Ryan Doumit and Jason Jaramillo, but so far I haven't heard of any trade rumors involving the Brewers acquiring a catcher.
Instead, Milwaukee is likely to look for a starting pitcher--even with Manny Parra, who was tremendous in his return from injury against the Cardinals shortly before the All-Star break, and Dave Bush, who seems likely to finish his rehab assignment within a week or two, the Brewers' current rotation consists of Yovani Gallardo and a bunch of mediocrities. (Parra showed better velocity in his Cardinals start than he did earlier this season, and he should be able to bounce back after a poor beginning to the year, but I wouldn't count on him being any better than a league-average starter down the stretch.)
GM Doug Melvin appears unwilling to part with top youngsters Alcides Escobar or Mat Gamel, though, so he'll have to be creative to find a pitcher who could improve on the Brewers' back-end starters. They don't really need a starting pitcher who can just take the ball every fifth day; they need a starter who's good, and that generally takes real prospects to acquire.
The Brewers have been mentioned in rumors about Roy Halladay. Melvin hasn't denied the Brewers are interested, but he didn't seem aware of the details of Halladay's contract last week, so it seems unlikely the Brewers are seriously pursuing him.
Long-term need
Realistically, what Milwaukee needs most is for the rest of the division to stay mediocre. They're very much in the playoff hunt this season despite losing C.C. Sabathia and Ben Sheets from last year's squad. But their corps of young hitters is getting expensive, and costly deals for lesser players like Jeff Suppan, Bill Hall and David Riske aren't helping them. Gallardo, Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun may still be young, but this isn't really a dynamic young team anymore. Their time is now and the very near future.
They could also use a centerfielder--Mike Cameron will be a free agent after the season.
Big leaguers on the market?
Gamel's name will continue to come up if the Brewers continue to be connected to Halladay, but it's unlikely Milwaukee will trade anyone from its 25-man roster.
Minor league strength
The season hasn't been particularly kind to the Brewers' minor league system--a number of their best prospects (including Jeremy Jeffress, Cutter Dykstra, Lorenzo Cain, and Angel Salome) have been disappointing this season. But Escobar has handled Class AAA pitching fairly well and 2008 first-rounder Brett Lawrie has been terrific, and a number of starting pitchers have played well at age-appropriate levels in the low minors--Wily Peralta, Cody Scarpetta, Daniel Meadows and Evan Anundsen all bear watching. Also, the Brewers had five picks in the first two rounds of the 2009 draft, so they should be able to recharge fairly quickly.
Take on short-term money to win?
If last year's decision to take on salary for Sabathia wasn't the sort of bell that would get the Brewers' ownership salivating, then I'm not sure what would be. The Brewers also already took on salary when they traded for Jody Gerut in May. The issue for the Brewers isn't so much money, it's whether they'll be willing to part with the young players required to bring another star to Milwaukee. They already traded Matt LaPorta last year; the idea of trading Gamel, Escobar or Lawrie may be a bit much for the Brewers, who aren't the Yankees and really need a flush farm system to succeed.
For more coverage of the Brewers, check out Brew Crew Ball.
0 recs |
13 comments
|
Email
Print
Comments
Can the Brew be a dark horse for Halladay?
They’re in it again and this time with Gallardo they could actually win a few games without killing CC
The only way the Brew Crew will be able to get Halladay
will destroy there farm system. I think they should try and add a starting pitcher from teams that have fallen out of contention. Im thinking the Mets might be a good trade canidate, maybe Livan Hernadez. He isn’t having the greatest season, but he might be really cheap and fill in the #2 or 3 spot in the brewers rotation. I’ve always liked the brewers and want to see them win and keep a farm. Go for a cheap SP
I Have Spoken.
Hey Guys,
I love your site! I included I link to this post in my MLB website that I write on! Feel free to check out my site, and let us know what you think in the comments or on the fan forum. Our site will be moving to a non- blogspot address soon but for now it’s:
http://mlbeverything.blogspot.com/
Thanks!
Wal Mart Buyers
I think the only reason the Brewers are being mentioned, and why Doug Melvin would even think about making a move for Halladay, is because of the Sabathia trade pulled off last year. The difference between this year and last was that last years team was a good team and making a playoff push made sense, and this years team has outperformed in a mediocre division, giving them the illusion of actually being a contender.
You are right, the only way they land Halladay is by mortgaging the future, and Doug Melvin wont do it. And even if he were forced too by Mark Attanasio, they dont have the firepower to land him. In addition to Escobar and Gamel they would need a young pitcher, which they dont have at all.
More likely for them to pick up a guy like Doug Davis or Jarrod Washburn, and then is it even worth it then? Slightly above replacement for a 20% chance?
I think if by end of July if they drop more out of it or moderately below .500 they should start to shop Cameron and Hoffman and try to get some pitching prospects if they can get them to try and build up a weak farm system for pitchers.
“I think if by end of July if they drop more out of it or moderately below .500 they should start to shop Cameron and Hoffman and try to get some pitching prospects if they can get them to try and build up a weak farm system for pitchers.”
They’re two games out of 1st on July 19th. Even if they don’t win another game this month, there is no way Melvin is going to shop Hoffman and Cameron by the deadline. Regardless of your distorted views of this team, it’s highly unlikely that they’re going to fall out of the division race anytime soon.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Jul 19, 2009 9:01 AM EDT up reply actions
2 games out or not
Theyre still currently in 4th place and a .500 team. I get it, they want to make the playoffs, but sometimes you have to sit back and rebuild, and this was a sort of rebuilding year for this team. For Melvin to go out and give up Gamel, Escobar and another couple of players for two months worth of service (two years in a row no less) is very short sighted, and is the kind of thing the Astros or Yankees would do.
If they are at .500 and in the same spot they are now, its the smartest move to trade away Hoffman and Cameron and look to the future.
The playoff appearance last year at the expense of two very good prospects, just was not worth it. And to do the same type of deal this year, would be even worse long term for this team. And to hold onto a couple of veterans, who could be traded away for future building blocks, would also be too short sighted.
I get it that youre a fan, and you want it all now, but its just not smart baseball to mortgage your future again and again. Want to go back to the late 90s and early 00s again? If they hold onto Hoffman and Cameron and trade for Halladay, thats what you will have in 2 to 3 years with this team. Ryan Braun will be the next Geoff Jenkins (only good player on awful teams).
Check the standings.
They’re tied for 2nd, which I’m sure you’ll call 3rd place. Not only are you wrong in your judgment, you’re lazy and casual with the accuracy of the “facts” on which you base your judgments.
“The playoff appearance last year at the expense of two very good propsects, just was not worth it.”
Though of course, when they gave up those prospects, they didn’t know that Sheets would break down so badly in September that he would pitch for a year or that Parra would implode mentally and become ineffective leaving them with virtually no chance to compete in the playoffs. When they gave up those prospects, they had every reason to believe that with Sabathia, Sheets, Gallardo due to return late in the year and Parra and Bush to round things out that their would be as good as anyone in the NL side of the playoffs (at that time) and that as a result they would have the chance to get to the Series. Those are the facts in which they made the decision to deal, rather than your claim that they knew they would lose in the first round even with Sabathia.
My disagreements with you don’t have anything to do with me being a fan. It has to do with the idiocy of you suggesting that the Brewers should give up on their season when they’re two games out. If you actually paid attention to my posts here and elsewhere (and you commented in the thread there too) you’d see that I don’t think that dealing for Halladay is the right move and thus I don’t want them to “mortgage their future” as you put it. I do think that as long as another playoff appearance is a possibility, and it is, it would be pretty foolish to deal Hoffman and Cameron and take the compensatory picks they’ll get for them if they sign somewhere else next year (if the season ended today, Hoffman would be a Class A free agent, for example). I’d rather keep them, maximize the teams performance this year and hope to land someone in the draft than deal them for a “prospect” who’ll probably end up as a back of rotation starter in 2010.
One thing I am curious about is why you wander SB Nation for what appears to be the sole purpose of bad-mouthing the Brewers. Why don’t you ever hang out on the site of a team you actually like? Or does your (unpaid) “scouting background” prevent you from being a fan of any team?
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Jul 19, 2009 12:55 PM EDT up reply actions
At the time of the original draft
They were in 4th. After the Astro loss yesterday they move to 3rd. The Brewers are behind the Cubs. You cant make up games in the loss column.
why do you even care what I say? Do you feel it is your duty to follow me all around SB Nation and post right after me? I have lived in Milwaukee most of my life, I know what your attitude is all about. Its the same thinking that leads Brewer fans to revel when the Cubs lose a game. Its the whole Chicago vs us thing. The sad part is that Milwaukee is not even on Chicago’s radar.
Look, we have differing philosphies. I would rather the Brewers be safe and take things slow and patiently. They are doing a very good job of that over the past 4 years. I would like to see them continue on that pace. So when it comes to Sheets breaking down, its a valid point, but if they had stood pat, and kept LaPorta, they probably would not have made the playoffs. That much is true, heck, if any one of 3 Met players gets a hit in a number of situations last year and the Brewers miss the playoffs. Would you have still felt that the CC trade was worth it?
The bottom line is that I just dont think this Brewer team is very good. I have said all year long that they are a .500 team, and they have pretty much proved me right. A lot of “prognositcators” agree with me. I would much rather see a rebuild take place. Lets say they are 4 or 5 out of both the WC and 1st on July 31? Is it a good move to hold onto those two guys? When they could get a couple of nice prospects from someone?
There’s no need to question my role in this game in the past, or bring insults into the conversation. We have a differing view on the Milwaukee Brewers. You are taking it personally. And thats the issue, fans take things like this personally, guys like me dont. I can appreciate any team for what they are but also not care where they finish in the standings, and I dont lose any sleep over it.
"At the time of the original draft, they were in 4th."
The original draft of what? Your comment? Because that’s not true either. Your comment was made this morning, when they were tied for second. If you mean the drafting of this article, then you might be right, but that’s also demonstrative of my point that you play fast and loose with the facts on a routine basis even as you try to pass yourself off as an expert or at least the voice of objectivity. You didn’t bother to look at the standings before commenting, and you didn’t bother to simply say they were in 4th yesterday, which might well have been accurate (though saying “tied for 2nd” would have been just as accurate).
“why do you even care what I say? Do you feel it is your duty to follow me all around SB Nation and post right after me?”
Because I don’t like people who try to steal the intellectual property of others and pass it off as their own, which you’ve done repeatedly in the last several weeks. I don’t like people who are uniformly negative about others, particularly when they pop in to spout that negativity to others for the express purpose of irritating them. And because you lie. A lot. And I have a fondness for the truth.
“I have lived in Milwaukee most of my life, I know what your attitude is all about. Its the same thinking that leads Brewer fans to revel when the Cubs lose a game. Its the whole Chicago vs us thing. The sad part is that Milwaukee is not even on Chicago’s radar.”
Actually I’ve never lived in Milwaukee and I could care less about that city or how it’s perceived by Chicagoans or anyone else. I’m just a baseball fan and a Brewer fan who lives a couple of hours away from any major league city. I like it when the Cubs lose because they’re in the Brewers division, just like I like it when the Cards and Astros lose too. But your choice to play this card demonstrates my point, again, that you’re entire purpose on SBN is to wander around and run down the city you live in and apparently hate.
“Would you have still felt that the CC trade was worth it?”
Nope, I don’t think it was even now. I’d rather have Brantley and LaPorta than the playoffs last year. But your point that the Mets could have eliminated the Brewers last year with a timely hit or two once again demonstrates my point. Why don’t you ever imagine that, but for a little bad luck, the Brewers could have eliminated the Mets sooner than the last day? It’s just as true as your hypothetical. The fact that you ONLY see things in a way that confirms your own bias, the one you deny, and that you wander from site to site preaching your gospel of the Brewers as an overrated and unlucky team makes you pathetic. You seem to think that me following you around and calling you on your nonsense makes me pathetic, which is equally true, but maybe you should consider that what I do from time to time is pretty much identical to what you do on SB Nation. If you don’t like it when I do it, maybe you should reconsider your own activity.
“And thats the issue, fans take things like this personally, guys like me dont. I can appreciate any team for what they are but also not care where they finish in the standings, and I dont lose any sleep over it.”
And that’s the issue all right. You think you’re better than a fan, when you’re not. If you really were an objective source of information or analysis, you’d be right. You claim a “scouting background” when you have none. You claim objectivity when you have none. You ARE a fan. Don’t you see? You may not support one specific team over any other (though if memory serves, I believe you indicated a fondness for the Giants earlier this year), but you definitely are anti-Brewer, at least this year, and that outlook has occupied enough of your attention to be the subject of about 75% of your comments on SB Nation this year. So while I acknowledge that I am a Brewer fan, and thus acknowledge my bias, you deny yours. It’s quite obvious in the way you wander from SB Nation site to SB Nation site dedicated to the Brewers opponent of the moment that you’re obsessed with the idea that the Brewers are overrated and are desperate to see them lose. Your claim to not care where they finish in the standings is, once again, a lie. (By the way, saying your idea was “idiocy” wasn’t intended to be an ad hominem attack, but an attack on the idea itself.)
If you don’t like me showing up periodically to point out your bias and your history of claiming a personal and analytical background that you don’t have, then the answer is quite simple. Stop making claims about your qualifications that aren’t true, stop clipping the work of others and passing it off as your own, and stop behaving the way you behave. Go camp on the site of a team you like, like the Giants, tell the truth and source your material, stop being needlessly irritating on BCB, and I’ll be more than happy to leave you alone.
Barring that, I’ll see you soon. :)
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Jul 19, 2009 6:47 PM EDT up reply actions
Cubs
Are you going to do the Cubs in one of your next postes.
Thanks
We’ll be doing all 30 teams over the course of the next week. Hang tight the Cubs one should be coming soon.
by Matt Buggenhagen on Jul 18, 2009 5:14 PM EDT reply actions
In the last two days, Melvin has been less definite in his statements that he won't deal Escobar or Gamel.
I still don’t think they’ll deal for Halladay and personally I don’t think they should, but Melvin acknowledged talking to the Jays about Halladay again this week and in the same interview he said that his top prospects weren’t untouchable. Melvin did express some concern about Halladay’s interest in coming to Milwaukee and the possibility that he might demand another trade before next season if he did. Regardless of his comments on or about July 7th, I think it’s pretty clear that Melvin’s interest has grown in the last few days. My guess is that the Jays gave Melvin the names of the players it would take to get him and Melvin is torn over whether to meet their demands. That’s certainly the way recent reports in the Journal/Sentinel have read.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Jul 19, 2009 9:07 AM EDT reply actions
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
Related FanPosts on MLB Daily Dish
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Certain photos copyright © 2010 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
