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Is Halladay REALLY worth it? Consider this:

Here's a statistic that should give the Phillies or any other team serious about pursuing the Blue Jays ace Roy Halladay.  Only two pitchers in the last 13 years traded at the deadline have pitched in a postseason game. Oliver Perez was one for the 2006 Mets and journeyman David Weathers was the other for the 1996 Yankees. While no starting pitcher can be expected to single-handedly lift a team to the postseason, they can make a difference in getting them there by winning a number of games in the last two months of the season. However, it's hard to argue with a stat that suggests it rarely plays out that way.

Ken Rosenthal at FOXSports is reporting this morning that the Phillies appear to be the front runner for Halladay's services.

Rosenthal has more to say about who might still be shopping for Halladay:

The Dodgers and Rangers, who have discussed Halladay with the Blue Jays, didn't have any contact with Ricciardi on Friday. The Yankees initially expressed interest, but Ricciardi has yet to engage them in talks. The White Sox have been involved — remember that they put together a compelling offer for San Diego's Jake Peavy two months ago — but it's not clear if they're an active bidder now.

The Angels, very involved in the market for pitching, may have increased their offer, according to one executive with knowledge of the Halladay situation. But it's doubtful that they could match a package from the Phillies if GM Ruben Amaro is willing to part with Drabek and at least one other premium player, such as left-hander J.A. Happ, or outfielders Dominic Brown or Michael Taylor.

One of the greatest things about the game of baseball is that there is a statistic for everything.  You want to know who was pitching in the sixth inning on a Thursday in July when another player stole his 30th base of the season in his home park on his birthday, you can actually look that up! So, a stat such as the one I mentioned above should be viewed as a warning. Is a two-month rental, even one as seemingly a sure thing as Holladay going to get a team to postseason glory? The odds are not great...

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Not worth it

However as a Mets fan – GO FOR IT!

by cuseindahuse on Jul 25, 2009 11:09 AM EDT reply actions  

Define "deadline"

Because the Phillies got Joe Blanton last year on July 18th, who went on to win a World Series game (with a HR, no less).

http://www.thegoodphight.com

by WholeCamels on Jul 25, 2009 11:10 AM EDT reply actions  

CC Sabathia was traded on July 7, 2008. So, technically, he and the above mentioned Joe Blanton do not figure in this stat. However, there’s no denying that late-season acquisitions can put a team over the top.

by Eli Greenspan on Jul 25, 2009 11:54 AM EDT up reply actions  

So?

Are you just talking about guys traded at 4pm on July 31?

by David S. Cohen on Jul 25, 2009 12:08 PM EDT up reply actions  

I’m pretty sure Randy Johnson was traded right at the deadline, and he pitched in a playoff game for the Astros as well. Regardless, that “stat” is about as valuable as someone leading the league in one out third inning doubles in July.

by seanbergmanrules on Jul 25, 2009 3:54 PM EDT up reply actions  

.....

if the dodgers, phils, cards, or brewers want to win RIGHT NOW… then yes, Doc is well worth it… your gonna nuke your farm system, but you will at least have a ring

by Aquamelli on Jul 25, 2009 11:25 AM EDT reply actions  

The Phil's farm

might not look too bad after this deal. Especially if a compromise is reached from Ricciardi’s Drabek, Happ, Brown offer.

Pete Rose was actually banned from baseball for teaching Jeff Francoeur how to play. He made up the gambling stuff to hide his shame.

by VivaLosBravos on Jul 25, 2009 12:41 PM EDT up reply actions  

Well THAT'S a useless statistic.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Jul 25, 2009 11:48 AM EDT reply actions  

Not just a 2 month rental….

don’t forget next year

'But I don't want to go among mad people' Alice remarked.
'Oh, you can't help that' said the Cat 'we're all mad here'.

by JohnnyG on Jul 25, 2009 12:59 PM EDT reply actions  

I Was thinking this same thing

Halladay is definitely under contract for next year as well, but he was looking for a contract extension immediately or else he’d veto the deal.

by shiftyeyedgoat on Jul 26, 2009 1:40 AM EDT up reply actions  

Teams may not just add Halladay because they think he'll get them into the postseason

but also to shore up the front-end of a rotation for an already-bound playoff team. Yes, baseball has statistics for everything, what you failed to mention is that many of the statistics — such as the impetus for your article here — are meaningless.

"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"

by jessef on Jul 25, 2009 1:58 PM EDT reply actions  

Stupid stat...

Here’s another stupid stat.

A homerun has never been hit at 3:21 am in MLB. Why bother trying…

Stupid? Yes. So was this concept.

Halladay is worth it and twice over.

by MattHaggard on Jul 25, 2009 2:41 PM EDT reply actions  

Halladay is a little different than your normal dealine type deal too… because he is under contract for next you are trading for two chances at the postseason with one of the best pitchers in the game right now.

by OTTOMATIC on Jul 25, 2009 3:01 PM EDT reply actions  

mid season acquisition

you are an idiot. what about johnson to the astros, nevermind cc last year. there are all kinds of mid-season examples of trades that help teams line up better in the playoffs. the yankees and bosox make a trade almost every year near the deadline. anyone who has seen halladay pitch often knows he is not just a pitcher, he is a warrior out there with intensity not unlike johnson when he was on top. this is a guy that makes everyone around him better and his team wins more than twice as many as they lose when he is on the mound. the phils are crazy not to give up 3 maybes for one sure thing. this type of player only becomes available once every 5 years on the top of his game.

by cswsife on Jul 25, 2009 3:24 PM EDT reply actions  

To be fair

He’s just saying exactly what everyone else is thinking.

"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"

by jessef on Jul 25, 2009 11:58 PM EDT up reply actions  

As others have pointed out, if you are only counting players traded “at the deadline,” this is kind of pointless. What if Roy Halladay is traded on July 28? Will his new team not be subject to this “stat” you have come up with?

You also missed Greg Maddux, who was traded by the Cubs to the Dodgers on July 31, 2006, and started Game 3 of the NLDS against the Mets.

But to not count recent examples C.C Sabtahia (traded July 7, 2008), Rich Harden (July 8, 2008), Joe Blanton (July 17, 2008), Jeaff Weaver (July 5, 2006), or even David Wells (August 31, 2006), just to name a few, really makes this entire piece worthless.

by Eric Stephen on Jul 25, 2009 5:38 PM EDT reply actions  

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