Brewers, Mariners Discuss Jarrod Washburn
by Matt Buggenhagen on Jul 26, 2009 11:03 PM EDT
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PrintThe Brewers and Mariners are reportedly discussing a deal that could send Mariners left-hander Jarrod Washburn, a Wisconsin native, to the Brewers, this according Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.
Haudricourt notes that even though Washburn is a free agent after the season because he's a Wisconsin native, he might be willing to stay another year.
Following a three game losing streak, and the placement of starter Erik Bedard on the DL, it almost makes sense for the Mariners to seriously consider dropping out. They're currently 7 ½ games behind the Angels for first place in the AL West, and all but out of contention for the AL Wild Card.
Furthermore, Haudricourt says that the Mariners are looking for a shortstop in return for Washburn, and what better place to look than Milwaukee.
The Brewers have two capable players to exchange for Washburn including current big league shortstop J.J. Hardy and prospect Alcides Escobar.
It's expected that the Mariners would demand Escobar in any deal, but because Mariners GM Jack Zduriencik was a former scouting director for the Brewers and drafted Hardy, he might be willing to take Hardy.
It will be interesting to see how this plays out for the Brewers. After being burned by CC Sabathia last year, the Brewers might be unsure about adding another starter who is due to be a free agent.
However, following recent moves by the Cardinals to acquire Mark DeRosa and Matt Holliday, the Crew might seriously have to consider taking a chance to compete with the Cards.
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I hope hes goes to the Brew Crew
he loves the Packers too, it would be a win/win situation.
They want power, We want respect...
Its a fair deal
According the the Kalkman TVC, Washburn/Hardy are about equal, depending on whether he would be type a or b FA, or if the M’s would be willing to pay for part of his salary for the rest of the year.
No way in the world they get Escobar for him. Washburn is only worth about $6 million at his peak. Escobar is worth nearly $20m.
The trade doesnt really help the Brewers playoff chances though, as you add a win/win and a half for Washburn, but give up a run (generously) in Hardy. Washburn is definitely not the front line starter the Brewers have needed all year, and even if he were the Brewers need a few more pieces to be considered serious playoff contenders.
Yea
For Hardy it’s something they probably should consider, but no shot for Escobar. I wonder if the Brewers would consider dealing Hardy to pick up Washburn, and then turn around and bring Escobar up to the big leagues.
by Matt Buggenhagen on Jul 27, 2009 10:56 AM EDT up reply actions
Only alternative
If they did deal Hardy, Escobar is the only logical choice to take over at SS. I dont think that Craig Counsell has the knees to start 80 more games this year, and Bill Hall doesnt have the bat to stay in the linuep.
I guess there is talk out there that one of the Mariners/Brewer deals being proposed is Escobar for Washburn and Morrow. Even this would be a horrible deal for the Brewers. Morrow has some value as a former top 100 prospect and length of service, but he has disappointed greatly so far. (Why do the Mariners have this issue with so many players (Jeff Clement)).
If Im Doug Melvin and they are asking about Escobar, I would want Washburn, Morrow and Michael Saunders in return.
OOPs
Get Saunders out of there. Didnt realize he was pushed all the way to the BA top 25 recently.
Replace Saunders in deal listed above with Jharmidy DeJesus or Dennis Raben.
Really? How good are you projecting Washburn to be?
As a league-average starter and not considering playoff probability implications, I’m pretty sure Hardy’s a much better contract.
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Using
Your calculator, for Hardy I input 1 WAR for 09 and anywhere from 2 to 3 for next. 80% for Arb for next year and whatever is left on his salary for this year resulting in as well as Type B Free Agent, he gets around $8.4 million in value (maybe I under valued Hardy a bit). And for Washburn $3.5 left for this yean in salary 1 WAR….Yeah I see what I did here now….
Thanks for the catch. Washburn is only worth about $7m if the Mariners pick up the rest of his salary. Either way they would have to throw in a low level prospect to even it out.
But
If you give Washburn 1.5 WAR for the rest of the year (not out of the realm of possibility with a league change) he shoots up to a $9.5m value. Gets a little closer to even.
League change should have no bearing on value.
Not facing the DH will changes his ERA, but we account for that by expecting a better ERA.
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Washburn for Hardy
Washburn is a career .500 pitcher who is having a very good season at age 34. The Mariners should try to get a starting SS, or a good package of young talent. They may stay close to the Angels, but need more pieces to be ready for the playoffs. Mariners GM Jack Zduriencik has made some good upgrades in his first year, Gutierrez, Chavez and Branyan especially, and added Langerhans and Hannahan to fill holes. After the Bavasi debacle, the (Sub)Mariners are returning to respectability.
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