2009 Trade Deadline Preview: Washington Nationals

by Brendan Scolari on Jul 27, 2009 2:51 AM EDT Comment 5 comments

Buyers or sellers?

The Nationals are in last place in the National League East with a 30-68 record, the worst in the major leagues. They will be looking to sell off expensive veterans in hopes of getting good, young talent that will help the tea when they can eventually contend.

Short-term need

Pitching, pitching, pitching. The club won't be competing in the near future so they've got some time to find some pitching but until then they won't get much better. The rotation is a collection of marginal guys who can't miss bats and the bullpen is just an absolute mess. The Nats aren't big spenders in free agency so they should search around and try to find some useful arms out of the bargain-bin to make the team watchable.

The Nats have lots of corner bats there is a complete lack of middle-infield talent throughout the organization. Finding some talented middle-infielders should be the secondary priority after rebuilding the pitching staff.

Long-term need

More pitching. Seriously, it's hard to overstate the need to upgrade the pitching staff up and down the organization. Jordan Zimmerman and (potentially) Stephen Strasburg are a nice duo to begin the task but the Nats will need to empasize adding arms in the draft and looking for any hidden gems they can find. There isn't a lot of help from the farm system on the horizon so they will just have to be patient. This is a process that will take a few years at least. It would be a nice start if the front office can flip some of the older players for prospects to help get them started. This situation could look quite a bit better if the Nats can add a few arms with upside at the deadline.

On offense the club again needs to add more middle-infield talent. There should be plenty of outfielders for the next few years between Nyjer Morgan, Elijah Dukes (provided he can overcome his struggles this year), and whoever is left over from the trade candidates. Ryan ZImmerman is a franchise cornerstone at third base and catcher and first base should be adequately filled by players in the organization.

Big leaguers on the market?

While no one is sure who will stay and who will go, potentially anyone on the team save for a few young players could find themselves wearing a different uniform in August. Ryan Zimmerman isn't on the block but nearly every other position player is depending on the price, most notably Adam Dunn and Nick Johnson. As for the pitching staff Jordan Zimmerman is probably someone to build around but there's not much else to get excited about. Other potential trade candidates include Josh Willingham, Willie Harris, and Joe Beimel.

Minor league strength

The Nats farm system isn't particularly good, there's not much upper-level talent or many high-upside players. First baseman Chris Marrero has a well-rounded offensive approach but doesn't have prototypical power for his position and is in his third year a the High-A level. Outfielder Michael Burgess was perhaps the Nats top hitting prospect heading into '09 but his numbers at High-A have been wholly unexciting. Left-handed pitcher Ross Detwiler doesn't have the velocity that made him a top-10 pick in the draft two years ago anymore. He is currently in the majors but is 0-5 with a 6.40 ERA.

On a brighter note, 20 year-old catcher Derek Norris looks very promising. He's currently in Single-A .310/.410/.572 with 24 doubles, 21 homeruns, and 54 walks in 395 PA. Also known for his strong throwing arm, Norris is a player to keep an eye on.

Perhaps the two biggest "strengths" of the system though are the Natonals #1 pick in 2009 and their likely #1 pick in 2010. The former was used to select uber-prospect Stephen Strasburg. If the Nats can sign him they instantly add a potential ace on a fast track to the big leagues. The #1 pick next year should let the Nats add another elite talent, perhaps 16 year-old phenom Bryce Harper.

Take on short-term money to win?

There's obviously no reason for the Nats to add any contracts in trades. They will most likely shed some salary as they trade off their older players.

For more coverage of the Nationals, check out Federal Baseball.

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Comments

The Nats lineup didnt look that bad on paper.

but damn they need SP…could be 500. team

They want power, We want respect...

by SenorChuckles on Jul 27, 2009 3:47 AM EDT reply actions

Hanrahan

I’m pretty sure Hanrahan was sent out in the Millege trade already.

by ravidesai1984 on Jul 27, 2009 11:20 AM EDT reply actions

That's right

Thanks.

by Brendan Scolari on Jul 27, 2009 1:28 PM EDT up reply actions

Yes.... it was Hanrahan and Milledge

For Burnett and Morgan

by bluelineswinger on Jul 27, 2009 6:29 PM EDT up reply actions

Maybe I get blasted for this

But you missed a cornerstone in the pitching department. I certainly agree that John Lannan doesn’t miss a lot of bats, but it’s hard to argue with what he’s done in two years as a starter with the big club (this season as the de facto ace). With his mediocre strikeout to walk ratio, I’ve wondered how he’s done it, but the fact of the matter remains that he has.

2008: 182 IP, 172 H, 72 BB, 117 K, 3.91 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, .252 BAA
2009: 135.2 IP, 136 H, 41 BB, 55 K, 3.25 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, .266 BAA

Again, the peripherals aren’t there, and that scares the crap out of me as a Nats fan. He’s something of a soft-tossing lefty, and while the walk rate’s not phenomenal, it’s gotten better in his second season. He doesn’t allow a lot of homers. He doesn’t run up his pitch count, and he eats up innings. I looked at him last year, and assumed that his BABIP (.273) would come up to a more normal standard, he’d be a little less lucky, and his ERA would start to crawl a little more towards his FIP (4.79 last year, 4.53 this year).

Guess what, though. His BABIP is (again) exactly .273 thus far. Oddly enough, his BABIP in the extremely small sample of 2007 (6 starts) was (you guessed it!) .273. I don’t believe pitchers can control that much, but I do believe that they can have some type of effect. Mind you, he’s playing in front of one of the worst defenses in the history of the game, too.

I’m certainly not saying that Lannan is ace material or anything, but there’s something to be said for a guy who looks well on his way to having an ERA that’s sub-4.00 in his first two seasons. I’m sure his current 3.25 ERA comes up (though he’s red hot lately) the rest of the way, but I get the feeling it’s not going to jump three quarters of a point. Just 24 and in his second full season, Lannan’s not even arbitration eligible yet.

Other than the omission of Lannan (which, adding Strasburg, Zimmermann, and possibly Detwiler [that might take some time] gives the Nats 60% of a decent rotation), I liked the report. I think they desperately need to move Nick Johnson at the deadline, and I could stand to see them part with Adam Dunn.

While I could deal with seeing them move Josh Willingham, I think that (contrary to what many think) he’s their most valuable trade chip. He doesn’t have the power of Dunn or the glove (or quite the extreme batting eye) of Johnson. However, he’s right there with both of them in terms of overall production. More importantly, he’s still controllable (won’t hit FA until after 2011) and pretty affordable for two more years. Dunn’s under contract for next season ($12 million, or roughly about three times what Willingham should net next year through arbitration/settlement) while Johnson looks to be a Type B Free Agent at the end of this season.

by bluelineswinger on Jul 27, 2009 6:25 PM EDT reply actions