Brewers' Bill Hall to be traded?

At first I thought this was ridiculous: Hall’s never really established himself as a full time player; he’s worked hard and made himself useful, playing anywhere the Brewers asked. But he’s always had extreme splits, usually dominating LHP but struggling with RHP. He really made strides and broke through in ‘06, having a career year largely based on having a good year against RHP. That’s the only year he’s had an 800+ OPS against RHP. But since that year and getting the big contract, he’s really regressed, not just against RHP but also against LHP. There’s almost no reason to trade for him, when a team could just sign him after he’s released by the Brewers.

Unless the team trading for him and his contract use that opportunity to rid themselves of a large contract they want to shed.

I can see some reasons for this if I’m Cincinnati, but ultimately I don’t think this trade is good unless they get Milwaukee to take on a good half of Hall’s salary. But first the reasons for taking on Bill Hall if I’m Cinci:

1. If Bill Hall can be successful anywhere, it’s at Great American.
In his career, he’s put up a 260/355/525 line in a not insignificant 135 ABs with 8 HRs. Project that over 600 ABs and that’s 35 HRs. And while it can’t be considered accurate to extrapolate data that was compiled over a long period of time during which performance varied greatly, Hall actually had one of his worst hitting seasons at Great American in his breakout ‘06 season. He’s almost always thrived and succeeded there.

The 355 OBP and 525 SLG are his highest in any ballpark where he’s had more than 10 ABs. He’s averaged a HR per 16.9 ABs (career avg in all parks is 26.2 ABs and at Miller Park 22.5 ABs). He could have a Brandon Phillips like resurgence playing half his games at Great American. He’s even not too unlike Brandon Phillips in his abilities, with the exception of not having Phillips’ speed, with his mediocre batting average on on base abilities but tendency to hit fly balls, that in Great American can fly out of the yard.

2. The Reds could relieve themselves of unwanted salary they would otherwise be stuck with.
Arroyo’s salary is similar to Hall: same length and within even a bit higher: extra $2.5M for ‘10 and extra $1.5M buyout in ’11.
The Reds overpaid for Arroyo after his first year in Cinci. Arroyo parlayed the switch to the weaking hitting NL and the possible bump in statistics due to unfamiliarity by new hitters, along with career best secondary statistics in BABIP and LOB%, into a career best season, setting career highs (of seasons where he had at least 30 IP) in K’s, K/9, ERA, WHIP, BAA and opposing SLG. Cinci rewarded him with a contract extension with a salaries that his performance probably hasn’t really met.

Arroyo has always been more of a fly ball pitcher, and that also doesn’t make him a good fit for Great American. Aside from last year, when Harang’s HR/9 allowed numbers just ballooned, Arroyo has led the Reds in HRs allowed every season he’s been on the team.

Aaron Harang is also a fly ball pitcher, and his contract is almost exactly the same as Arroyo’s. He’s had 2 disappointing years in a row as well, but his averages are still better. I tend to like Harang’s chances of success better, but there’s not that much scientific or empirical evidence to back that up aside from possibly being unlucky this year with a career worst BABIP and poor run support contributing to a poor W-L record.

While Arroyo’s GB% rate has improved the past 2 seasons, and Harang’s has actually dropped, Arroyo has had a significant decline in his K/9 rate this season. Harang’s has pretty much stayed steady with his historical averages there. That said, Fan Graphs shows that Harang’s fastball is no longer a plus pitch and his slider has gone from being an better than league average pitch to among the worst this season.

In the end though, both Harang and Arroyo are good to at worst average middle of the rotation pitchers, who just happen to pitch in a terrible pitchers’ park. They may be overpriced, but any pitcher would have a difficult time keeping the ball in the yard and posting great statistics for Cincinnati. I would think Harang’s ability to miss bats gives him an edge over Arroyo.

And while Hall could succeed at Cincinnati, and Cincinnati certainly could use a new SS, it doesn’t seem worth the gamble to take on his salary. Arroyo is a much better bet to remain an above average pitcher in the NL and have more value relative to his contract than Bill Hall is.

If the Brewers are willing to pick up say $5-$6M of Hall’s contract next season, making him only a $3-4M risk to the Reds ($2.5M – $3.5M salary in ‘10 and $0.5M buyout in ’11 if he doesn’t succeed), then I could see Cincinnati considering pulling the trigger to send Arroyo and his remaining $13M ($11M in ’10 and $2M ’11 buyout) to Milwaukee.

Milwaukee has incentive to do this as they’d otherwise be on the hook for the $9M remaining on Hall’s contract, an amount they’d eat in full upon releasing him. It’s not difficult to pitch better anywhere away from Great American, but Arroyo’s pitched pretty well at Miller Park in his career, posting a 2.84 ERA in 8 starts, a full run below the 3.84 ERA he has at Great American over his career. Of note though, Arroyo’s only averaged 5.5 IP / GS in his 8 starts at Miller Park, and he has allowed a HR every 7.4 AB at Miller Park just as he has at Great American.

But Milwaukee’s starting pitching, with the exception of Yovani, has been a trainwreck this season, with every other starting pitcher they’ve used posting an ERA over 5. Arroyo would by default become their #2 starter, and if the Brewers are going to contend next season, they certainly need to upgrade their pitching.

I think Cinci’s got all the leverage if this were to happen, and they shouldn’t take on Hall and give up Arroyo unless Milwaukee put in cash to take on a significant part of Hall’s 2010 salary.