Melky Cabrera-Giants Trade Review

by Craig M Williams on Nov 12, 2011 3:01 PM EST in MLB Experts

As most of us know (but perhaps have forgotten with more interesting stories brewing), the San Francisco Giants and Kansas City Royals kicked off the 2011-2012 Hot Stove season by swapping a few players. The Giants sent erratic LHSP Jonathan Sanchez and minor leaguer Ryan Verdugo - also a lefty, but probably a future reliever according to Keith Law. In return, the Giants received Melky Cabrera off of a career year in which he hit 18 HR and OPS'd .809.

Law is a bit puzzled by this trade in general, but says that if he had to pick a winner, he would go with the Kansas City Royals. Maybe it would be more appropriate wording if I said that if he had to pick a loser, he'd pick the Giants. He makes it pretty clear that he doesn't really like either team's return, but in his eyes the Giants got the short end.

Law's main beef is that Cabrera is a fourth outfielder in his eyes - not good enough defensively to handle one of the league's tougher center fields and not good enough with the stick to profile as a corner outfielder.

While Law makes some good points, I have to disagree with him here. At worst I think the deal is a wash. I don't like Jonathan Sanchez, his declining velocity or his unbearable walk rates. The Giants will now have to turn to Barry Zito or youngster Eric Surkamp as their fifth starter, but the front four that they have in the rotation (even if Ryan Vogelsong comes back to earth) is strong enough to absorb whatever slop pulls up in the rear.

As far as Melky Cabrera in the outfield, Law says himself that he's just a stopgap until 2010 draft pick Gary Brown is ready to take over. The final factor to consider is that the Giants skim off a little payroll. Even if all things are equal and each package is as horrible as the other, the Giants will pay about $3 million less.

There is no clear cut winner here, but to me it seems as if the San Francisco Giants might actually have come away with the slightly better return.

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Here's the thing...

Jonathan Sanchez is obviously not the next Randy Johnson, but because he strikes out so many hitters, he’s essentially a league-average pitcher. The Giants effectively downgrade their rotation with this move, and now their only decent insurance for Barry Zito is Eric Surkamp (who Brian Sabean has said is not ready for the majors, and needs more time to develop).

Is it worth that for Melky? I don’t think so. As I’ve said multiple times, I think he’s only a slight (if at all) improvement over Andres Torres. Torres is older, and coming off a bad season, but he’s a much, much better defender (and a better baserunner as well). Over the last three seasons, they’ve been essentially the same hitters (though they admittedly took different paths to similar slash lines).

They don’t save $3MM — they save about $1MM. Melky projects to make ~$4.5MM through arbitration, while Jonathan Sanchez projects to make ~$5.5MM.

Lastly, they threw in a prospect who — while not particularly special, has some inherent value. I think he could very well have the best future of anyone in this deal (Verdugo has solid K rates in the minors).

It’s not an awful deal, though I do hate the nature of it (the Giants are essentially selling low and buying high). I’d give the trade a C or a B- for the Giants, and I’d say the Royals won the trade.

I write a Giants blog. I also write for MLB Daily Dish and Beyond the Box Score

by Julian Levine on Nov 12, 2011 3:23 PM EST reply actions

The funny thing is, if Sanchez figures out how to halve his walk rate?

He really could be the next Randy Johnson. Not likely, obviously, but hey.

Managing Editor at Beyond the Box Score and MLB Daily Dish. Follow me @justinbopp

by Justin Bopp on Nov 12, 2011 3:45 PM EST up reply actions

Exactly.

I’d say the chances of that happening are – what – 2 or 3%? Not particularly likely, but it’s something.

I write a Giants blog. I also write for MLB Daily Dish and Beyond the Box Score

by Julian Levine on Nov 12, 2011 4:23 PM EST via mobile up reply actions

But I disagree that Melky has for certain not turned a corner (permanently) as well.

He’ll most likely regress to his career norm, but again, hey.

Managing Editor at Beyond the Box Score and MLB Daily Dish. Follow me @justinbopp

by Justin Bopp on Nov 12, 2011 5:07 PM EST up reply actions

Andrew Miller was supposed to be the next Randy Johnson

so good luck with that.

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by Marisa Ingemi on Nov 12, 2011 7:23 PM EST up reply actions

Andrew Miller has a career 7.2 K/9

in 360 MLB IP.

I write a Giants blog. I also write for MLB Daily Dish and Beyond the Box Score

by Julian Levine on Nov 12, 2011 7:32 PM EST up reply actions

He also has a

career 1,000,000 BB/9
At least it feels like that.

In Lax We Trust - Official Pro Lacrosse Blog of SBN
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by Marisa Ingemi on Nov 12, 2011 7:58 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs

+1

Managing Editor at Beyond the Box Score and MLB Daily Dish. Follow me @justinbopp

by Justin Bopp on Nov 12, 2011 8:16 PM EST up reply actions

Great Trade for the Royals

They’ve basically upgraded their rotation while having the potential to have lost very little in the field. Based on the performance he had at AAA, Cain has shown that he at least deserves a shot to take that starting spot in CF, and Sanchez, regardless of how many batters he walks, could still be an upgrade over their 4/5 spots in the rotation.

As for the Giants, I understand that they had the excess starting pitching, based on the theory that Zito would move back into the rotation. But it seems like there should have been a slightly better market for Sanchez than Melky Cabrera.

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by Jason Hunt on Nov 12, 2011 5:57 PM EST reply actions