MLB Editorials
2012 MLBDD Prospect Lists: Top 15 First Basemen
Prospect lists are a bit of a hip fad these days. I've determined this based on the roughly 50 lists that I've found purporting to rank the sport's best young players. I've also recognized that those 50 lists only sort the prospects in one way- by organization- when fans are often quite concerned with comparing prospects across different organizations. Why make a 51st list that sorts players in a similar manner? Here at MLBDD, we'll be rolling out prospect lists by position, rather than by organization, because we want the 51st prospect list that you read this month to be a little bit different.
MLB Daily Dish's Top 15 First Base Prospects For The 2012 Season
1. Anthony Rizzo, Chicago Cubs
There isn't a player at this position that really stands out right now as a marquee prospect, but Rizzo managed to stick at the top here. Great power and strong plate discipline, not to mention that people overreact about his performance with San Diego last season.
2012 MLBDD Prospect Lists: Top 15 Catchers
Prospect lists are a bit of a hip fad these days. I've determined this based on the roughly 50 lists that I found purporting to rank the sport's best young players. I've also recognized that those 50 lists only sort the prospects in one way- by organization- when fans are often quite concerned with comparing prospects across different organizations. Why make a 51st list that sorts players in a similar manner? Here at MLBDD, we'll be rolling out prospect lists by position, rather than by organization, because we want the 51st prospect list that you read this month to be a little bit different.
MLB Daily Dish's Top 15 Catching Prospects For The 2012 Season
1. Jesus Montero, Seattle Mariners
Montero is a catcher until he isn't, and there's one thing we know about him: he'll crush baseballs as if they mocked him as a child. The Mariners seem set on giving Montero a shot to play nearly full-time behind the plate, and he's got unreal upside if he can stick at the position.
2. Travis d'Arnaud, Toronto Blue Jays
He still needs a bit more development, but he's got potential to be an elite catcher given his combination of offensive and defensive skills. The power is legitimately plus, and he projects as a plus defender behind the plate given his improving technique.
Bobby Abreu: What's His Trade Market?
A couple of days ago, a source told ESPN.com's Jayson Stark that the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim would accept a couple of "middling" prospects for OF Bobby Abreu. That's not surprising considering that the Angels really don't have a need for the 37-year-old Abreu and I am sure they would love to unload his $9 million contract for 2012.
As MLB Daily Dish's Marisa Ingemi posted yesterday morning, Abreu hasn't requested a trade, but even if he did, do the Angels even have a trade market for Abreu? It's going to be tough to unload him, but it's not like Abreu is a complete wet noodle. Abreu does have some redeeming qualities, so let's take a look at the pros, cons, and potential trade partners for the man that the Philadelphia Phillies acquired for Kevin Stocker back in 1997.
How Much is A.J. Burnett Worth for the Next Two Years?
The closer that a Yankees/Pirates trade of A.J. Burnett gets, the more fans are left wondering what exactly the right price is to make it happen. But before we get to the essential question, let's look at the facts:
1. The Yankees owe Burnett $35 million over the next two seasons.
2. Burnett is 35.
3. Burnett has started exactly 33 games in each of the past three seasons, totaling somewhere between 187-207 innings each.
4. His K/9 and his BB/9 over the same period are consistent with his career average of each (8.2 K/9, 3.8 BB/9), but his ERA is trending generally upwards, reaching 5.26 and 5.15 in 2010 and 2011. If you prefer ERA+, it's dropping. If you prefer WHIP, the last three seasons have been among his worst since he was in his early 20s.
5. The most telling counting stat to see go up for Burnett has been his home runs given up over the same period - 25, 25, and 31. I'll defer to my sabermetric betters to note those all come while pitching for the Yankees (and playing against the AL East).
6. While earning right around 3 wins above replacement each season from 2005-2009, Burnett's past two seasons have hovered somewhere between negative value and just one game above replacement (think: decent middle reliever with around 30 IP). If you're counting, that's two of his worst seasons in his career.
7. Burnett is still 35, and not getting younger.
Now, all of those are facts. Some are obviously context sensitive -- over the past three seasons, he's been with the Yankees, pitching at Yankees Stadium, and pitching against the murderer's row of the AL East. But we also know that something happens to pitchers once they reach their mid-30s, which most people call "getting old." I think we can safely put Burnett in that category, context be damned.
The rest of what we know is mostly speculation -- the Pirates are likely to trade a couple bottom rung prospects and the Yankees might eat most of that $35 million. I've seen the Pirates could be responsible for anything between $10 million - $14 million for the next two seasons.
And that brings us to the question of the hour: how much is A.J. Burnett worth over the next two seasons?
Four Top Prospects Could Be On the Move Sooner Than We Think
Top prospects are perhaps the most prized currency in today's game. Rebuilding teams turn to their minor league talent to lay the foundation of their future and contending teams cash in their prospects as trade chips to acquire that big ticket item that will get them over the hump in October.
Some teams place a higher emphasis on the talent and depth in their farm system than others, but these days you're not going to see a team neglecting their minor league system a la the New York Yankees in the mid-2000's. Still, there several instances when teams will part with some of their top young talent.
Whether a team needs one more piece for a playoff run, a prospect is blocked at the MLB level or some combination of circumstances, it is not terribly uncommon to see elite minor league talent traded away.
Here are a few prospects to keep an eye on over the next year or two. The next time you hear about them, they could be in a different organization.
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The Josh Hamilton Relapse Reaction
Josh Hamilton relapsed. There's little that most of us can add other than hesitant support for him and his family, restrained judgment, a panicked "what about my team?" that is natural but uncomfortable to feel, and the squeamish understanding of what it means to be an addict. Most people either love one, hate one, or are one.
I won't say which one I am, for personal and family reasons, but I will say I think I understand addiction. And by understand addiction I mean to say there's no understanding addiction. "Aren't you happy?" An addict might hear, whether he's a successful baseball player or she's a mom with beautiful children or he's a retired veteran living out his golden years. "Don't you care about us?" Fans, children, co-workers might ask. It's not about you! an addict might reply. "Then what's it about?"I don't know.
I don't know. You'll never know. Childhood stuff. Daddy issues. Chemical dependency based on trying it for fun one too many times. Pain. Too much/Not enough free time as a teenager. Depression. Too little money. Too much money. Stress. We'll never know.
Addiction is possibly the darkest disease other than cancer. Partly because it appears self-inflicted, partly because you can't really see it until it's too late. Perhaps it's mostly because an addict can go from perfectly fine to binging at the drop of a hat -- or a bad day or a bout of depression. I'm certainly no expert, nor is anyone that you'll read today about the Hamilton story, because addiction is a fight with oneself over an issue neither self knows.
However, I will say be wary of those suggesting they do understand, or empathize (either with the family or with the addict), or write nasty articles that have nothing to do with the disease (I will note I haven't seen many of these).
But also be wary of anything Hamilton says, not that you aren't already. He will say he's embarrassed, that addiction is a disease, that he's sorry to his family, to his friends, to his teammates, to his church, and to his fans. He'll say it's a struggle and that he's turning his life over to God (again) and he needs all of your support and that he can't promise it won't happen again. You should believe every word he says, even if he is lying.
What the Boston Red Sox Need to do to Win the AL East
Last season the Boston Red Sox won 90 games and did not make the playoffs. They have undergone much change in this off season, with a new GM and manager, along with an overturned roster. If a baseball team can win 95 games, they should be able to make the playoffs. If the Red Sox can collect five more wins, they will be a playoff team.
Now it comes down to, can the Red Sox win five more games this season? The Red Sox had a WAR of 39.5 last season. Can they get five more wins, and get to a 44.5 WAR, or stay around that mark? It was the best WAR in baseball this past season, and if not for the collapse, they were an elite team. This off season has been rather uneventful from the acquisition side, so I would say they need to improve WAR by maybe one.
The Red Sox have lost two impact players this off season, Marco Scutaro and Jonathan Papelbon. Papelbon had a WAR of 3, and Scutaro one of 2.9. That is 5.9 wins that need to be replaced. Last season, Mike Aviles had a WAR of 0.3and Nick Punto of 1.9. That is 2.5 wins from the shortstop position, a -0.4 from the season before. If that is replaced in other areas, it could be ok.
Meanwhile, Andrew Bailey had 1.9 and Mark Melancon 0.8. That is -0.2. So they need to replace now 0.6 wins. We will get back to that, but now we look to the right field position. JD Drew had a WAR of -0.3 and Josh Reddick had 1.9. So they need to get a WAR of about 1.9 to make up for Reddick, seeing that Drew was a non factor.
Follow the jump to find out how.
Responding To Bowden's Trade Ideas
I had a whole big post that was nearly finished up for publishing, right up until that moment when I accidentally deleted the entire thing. Lucky for me, SB Nation's brilliant auto-saving feature* was there to immediately save my mistakes. It's funny brutally lame how I can lose an hour's worth of writing in a few seconds.
*Which is usually totally awesome, by the way
But I've felt compelled to bother the world with my opinions for a while now, and what better way to do that than responding to the brilliance of one Jim Bowden. If you're not too familiar, he's the former GM of the Reds and Nationals that now works for ESPN. And while he's often mocked for being Jim Bowden, the reality is that this man gets how other GM's think.
So when he writes up trade suggestions, I don't immediately write them off. You want to know why? Because MLB general managers aren't writing them off. And if I'm that much smarter than all of these guys, I'd be on a yacht right now sending in trade ideas to the owner from my iPad (note: author would simply like to own an iPad).
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