MLB Experts
Jeremy Guthrie Trade Reactions: Good Reasons to be Repulsed
As you likely know, the Baltimore Orioles traded Jeremy Guthrie -- their opening day starter/best pitcher/only hope -- to the Colorado Rockies in exchange for Matt Lindstrom and Jason Hammel. The idea, at least from what I can gather, is that Guthrie was only under control through this season, after which the Os would lose him anyway, and his market wasn't terribly good, and hey, they had one pitcher through 2012 and now they have two pitchers through 2013, and...excuses.
The reaction to such excuses and "reasoning" is about what you'd expect, somewhere between complete eye-rolling apathy ("here they go again") and worst-fears-validated on the part of the fans. Buster Olney points out that the move helps the club neither now, nor later, and Ken Rosenthal notes that it's likely the Rockies could make a better move for him in July. And the fans over at Camden Chat see their worst fears coming true -- the team is waiting too long to trade good players for prospects, and the return the club is getting will never be enough to compete with the rest of the AL East:
Baltimore Orioles trade Jeremy Guthrie to Colorado Rockies - Buster Olney | ESPN (Insider)
The fact is that Guthrie doesn't have a ton of trade value now that he's less than a year from free agency, so forget the notion that Baltimore was going to get some high-end prospect for him.But what is confounding about the deal is that it really leads to nowhere in the Orioles' big-picture need to improve. Jason Hammel and Matt Lindstrom, the two pitchers that Baltimore acquired, make about as much money as Guthrie, so the O's didn't save any cash.
And if Hammel has another season as rough as last year, when he lost his spot in the Colorado rotation, then he will be a non-tender candidate next fall. Similarly, Lindstrom will be a non-tender candidate if the Orioles don't pick up his option.
Edwin Jackson to Nationals Reaction Blowout
Finally, Edwin Jackson signed today. The right handed starting pitcher decided to sign with the Washington Nationals this afternoon, after a long free agency that was widely speculated on. While teams like the Orioles and Red Sox seemed deep in on him, he ended up in DC to pitch for the Nats. Here are some reactions and notes that come out of the signing.
- Adam Kilgore from the Washington Post has some quotes from Nationals GM Mike Rizzo.
"We did not acqire Edwin Jackson to trade another starting pitcher," "In spring training or before spring training, if a deal comes up we can't pass up that positively impacts our ball club, we'd certainly be open-minded to it."
Rizzo also said that the Nats started talking to agent Scott Boras about signing Jackson about two weeks ago and that a turning point for the Nationals was when Jackson was willing to sign a one year deal.
- Joe Lemire from SI.com writes that with Jackson now on the Nats, they are ready to start looking towards a late October run. He says that with Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez and now Jackson, they have an elite starting rotation.
- Steve Gardner from USA Today says that might be an average starting pitcher, but that he would add value to all thirty MLB teams with the innings he is able to eat. He calls Jackson "a bargain in fantasy (baseball) and reality"
Keith Law Weighs In On the Prince Fielder Deal
The Detroit Tigers sent shock waves through the baseball world when they inked Prince Fielder - arguably the best free agent first base option on this year's free agent market - to a nine year, $214 million deal.
Understandably, the media was buzzing at full force in the hours and days following the deal. You've probably caught several different people's opinions on ESPN - Jim Rome, Dan Le Batard, the PTI boys, etc. Refusing to be left out (or perhaps just doing his job), Keith Law tossed in his two cents.
In an ESPN Insider piece, Law talks about the short and long-term implications of this deal:
Prince Fielder / Detroit Tigers Reactions Blowout
The big news over the last 24 hours, other than the State of the Union and other things in the real world, is that the Detroit Tigers killed the single biggest rumor mystery tour of the off-season and signed Prince Fielder. While it was fun for us echo-chamber types, I have to admit it got a bit nauseating after the 20th or 21st "Prince Fielder Rumors: Team, Team, Team" pieces we ran over the past several weeks.
The reactions have varied somewhere between jaw-dropping amazement ("Wow, the Tigers! Who woulda thought?!"), to regret from our friends in the AL Central ("well there goes the Twins' chances next season!") to one of relief in the NL East ("at least he's not with the Nats.").
The best reactions, though, are the ones looking at the big picture, answering: Is this enough for the Tigers to compete for a title over the next few seasons? What happens after that? What about Cabrera and Martinez? Here are some of the best, though I especially encourage you to read Dave Cameron's piece at FanGraphs in its entirety:
Quick Reax: How Does Fielder on the Tigers Affect their Roster?
The Detroit Tigers stunned the baseball world today when they signed Prince Fielder. Obviously, this affects them very much with one of the top hitters in the game now in their everyday lineup, but how does it affect the rest of their roster?
Victor Martinez, their DH of last season, will miss this entire season with a torn ACL. He will be back in 2013, however. So that will mean that Miguel Cabrera, likely to DH this year with Fielder at first, will have to see some changes.
Some speculate that Cabrera will have to move to third base, his old position, or the outfield. I do not see how Cabrera will be able to play the outfield in a year or so so it should be interesting how this works.
One thing that is interesting is the fact that as he gets older, Fielder can DH, something he would not be able to do if he signed with the Washington Nationals, an NL team.
Once Martinez is back, this creates one of the most dangerous lineups in baseball with Fielder just another cog in there. They emerged as a surprised team late in these negotiations, but they just won one of the best hitters in the game. This affects them in only positive ways, but it also affects the rest of their lineup.
Red Sox Scutaro Trade Justification: Luxury Tax, Aviles, Punto
Counter Resets and the Aviles/Punto Voltron Idea
The Red Sox' recent trade of Marco Scutaro to the Colorado Rockies in exchange for Clayton Mortenson certainly drew a number of reactions, mostly of the "what's become of the once-great Red Sox?" variety.
This morning, though, some of those questions are coming into focus -- and Brian MacPherson of the Providence Journal offers one extremely plausible theory: the club is trying to reset their Luxury Tax counter in order to potentially splurge in 2013 without the repeat-offender penalty. At the other end of the deal is the suggestion that perhaps Mike Aviles and Nick Punto can combine into a Voltron-ish almost-Scutaro, which Over the Monster's Marc Normandin advocates but FanGraphs somewhat dismisses.
The question that remains, and leave it to Rob Neyer to keep asking it -- is Mortenson the best they could do?
Where the Red Sox stand with the luxury-tax threshold - Brian MacPherson | The Providence Journal
"In round figures, for luxury-tax purposes, the Red Sox payroll looks to be well over $170 million even without Scutaro on the roster. Henry has paid the luxury tax six times in the last nine seasons, more than all other non-Yankee teams combined. If Henry has asked Cherington to get the payroll close to or below the threshold, he indeed did not have room to sign a pitcher like Roy Oswalt or trade for a pitcher like Gavin Floyd."
WEEI.com: Scutaro Deal All About The Luxury Tax - Baseball Nation
"They couldn't get more for Scutaro than Clayton Mortensen? Maybe he'll turn into a strike-throwing machine while remaining a groundball-producing machine, and the Red Sox will have another Derek Lowe on their hands. Maybe the Red Sox' internal metrics show Scutaro as a sub-par defensive shortstop. But while I'm grateful to Alex Speier for providing a piece of the puzzle, there's still some stuff about this deal that I can't figure."
Carlos Pena Contract Reactions Blowout
Earlier today, the Tampa Bay Rays signed first base slugger Carlos Pena to a one-year $7.25M contract. It's a big chunk of money for the Rays, but the general consensus is that it's a solid move nonetheless, as they bolstered their lineup. Let's take a look at the reactions from around the web:
- Tampa Bay Rays Reunite With Carlos Pena; Sign Slugger To One-Year Deal - DRaysBay
"Pinch me, I think I'm dreaming. I was hoping against hope that the Tampa Bay Rays would bring back Carlos Pena, and now that it's finally happened, I can barely collect my thoughts and put them into coherent sentences." - Carlos Pena Returns to the Trop | FanGraphs Baseball
"Carlos Pena has filled the first base role admirably for the Rays under Andrew Friedman and should be counted on to do so again after a resurgent season at the friendly confines in Chicago."
Yu Darvish/Rangers Deal Reaction Blowout
The Texas Rangers signed Yu Darvish to a roughly $60 million six-year deal yesterday. Today, the dust has settled a little bit -- some are seeing the real cost to the team ($111M-$117M, depending on the source), while others are seeing the opportunity. Buster Olney in particular points out that with the $52M posting fee and the $60M contract, Darvish is not one of the most expensive pitchers of all time, but is the most expensive RHP in baseball history.
Then there's the details of the steak dinner that impressed Nolan Ryan (we're all hoping that wasn't really it, right?), the interesting information on the years of scouting the Rangers conducted on Darvish, and that pesky question -- "who else (and how many other elses) could they have brought in for the same amount of money?"
Here are some of the best reactions for this amazing megadeal, the fallout of which is still not completely known:
-
Twitter / @Buster_ESPN - "Yu Darvish is now the most expensive right-handed pitcher in the history of the major leagues."
- How Good Will Yu Darvish Be, Really? - Rob Neyer | Baseball Nation
"Not many top Japanese starting pitchers have joined Major League Baseball while still in or near their primes. But maybe we get a handle on Yu Darvish's future by looking at his predecessors."
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