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Fan Confidence in Fantasy Draft

In my first edition covering confidence intervals among fans I noticed something very interesting in my draft. Players, despite their rankings and stats, were somehow falling way lower than normal because fans are simply hesitant to take them. 

It can be seen in the pitching and for offensive players, but it can also been seen in players than fans are overly confident in. Now that we are two weeks into the season we should check in and see how fans confidence proved early on.


Ricky RomeroBlue Jays: Romero, a 2005 first-round draft pick, came on the scene in 2009 with 13 wins and followed it up with 14 wins in 2010. Romero was often viewed as a sleeper despite his solid season totals. So far, he has posted 1.32 ERA in two starts this season.

Jamie Garcia, Cardinals: Garcia is a similar case to Romero and now he is being thrust into an even bigger role in the Cardinals rotation. He ha stepped up thus far, pitching a complete game and boasting a sub-1.00 ER in fifteen innings.  

Rafael FurcalDodgers: If there was one infielder that was avoided more in the middle rounds of the draft it was Rafael Furcal. Furcal is an injury risk, and hasn't had a healthy, strong season since 2006, when he hit .300. Someone eventually picked him up, but will now likely release him as he lands on the DL with a broken thumb. The fans low confidence in Furcal ultimately proved true.

Marlon ByrdCubs: After a strong first season with the Cubs, Byrd is back as the new fan favorite in the outfield and is fully embracing the role. He has the potential to be in a potent offense and could do some damage, maybe even post another 20-homer season. In leagues with more than one utility man, Byrd's value shot up as a secondary regular. He is only owned in 27.5 percent of ESPN fantasy leagues.