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While the 2015 MLB draft has generally been referred to as a "weak class", there are still some interesting names in the top ten this year. With less than a month to go before Rob Manfred takes the stage, here is a look at a few of the mock drafts that have been released.
Is there any consensus?
In an article on Fangraphs, Kiley McDaniel notes how difficult it is to predict the number one overall draft pick this year. That being said, there is a good amount of agreement about how the first ten picks will go once the names are announced on June 8th. In the 30 slots listed below, just 13 players comprise all the picks.
| Fangraphs | Baseball Prospectus | Baseball America | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 (D-Backs) | Dansby Swanson (Vanderbilt) | Garrett Whitley (HS) | Dillon Tate |
| 2 (Astros) | Brendan Rodgers (HS) | Dansby Swanson | Dansby Swanson |
| 3 (Rockies) | Dillon Tate (UCSB) | Brendon Rodgers | Brendon Rodgers |
| 4 (Rangers) | Kyle Funkhouser (Louisville) | Dillon Tate | Jon Harris (Missouri) |
| 5 (Astros) | Daz Cameron (HS) | Alex Bregman | Kyle Tucker (HS) |
| 6 (Twins) | Alex Bregman (LSU) | Kyle Funkhouser | Daz Cameron |
| 7 (Red Sox) | Carson Fulmer (Vanderbilt) | Daz Cameron | Alex Bregman |
| 8 (White Sox) | Tyler Jay (Illinois) | Carson Fulmer | Kyle Funkhouser |
| 9 (Cubs) | Trenton Clark (HS) | Trenton Clark | Carson Fulmer |
| 10 (Phillies) | Tyler Stephenson (HS) | Tyler Stephenson | Trenton Clark |
While nobody agreed on the number one overall pick, they seemed to reach the same conclusion that Dansby Swanson is one of the elite players in the draft. In 201 at-bats he's hitting .348, with an OBP of .440, and is slugging .617. Baseball Prospectus has high school center fielder Garrett Whitley as the top pick, which initially may look strange. Whitley's name isn't listed on the other top ten lists, however the D-Backs are considering selecting him with the number one overall pick.
Dave Stewart is in upstate New York today to watch Garrett Whitley #StewWatch
— keithlaw (@keithlaw) May 6, 2015
Finally, Baseball America has the D-Backs taking right handed pitcher Dillon Tate out of UCSB. In 88.1 innings this season, Tate has a 1.73 ERA and 92 strikeouts. At the moment, it doesn't look like he'll be on the board for too long, as he's a consensus top five pick. While BA was the only one to place Kyle Tucker and Jon Harris in the top ten, they're both mentioned as contenders on Fangraphs and BP.
Despite the fact that he recently had Tommy John surgery, 2014's number one overall pick Brady Aiken is likely going to be selected in the first round for the second consecutive year. While there are still some concerns about the overall strength of Aiken's elbow, BA has the Giants drafting him 18th overall, while BP has him at 24th, going to the Dodgers.
Vanderbilt is the school to watch
Not only are they the defending NCAA champions, but they're off to another fantastic start (currently ranked 14th), and have three of the most intriguing players in the draft. Aside from Swanson, the Commodores also have Carson Fulmer, and Walker Buehler.
| GS | CG | IP | ERA | BA Against | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Fulmer | 13 | 2 | 86.2 | 1.56 | 0.192 |
| Wakler Buehler | 11 | 0 | 63 | 3.14 | 0.265 |
They each have significant velocity (reaching the upper 90's), and while Buehler has struggled at times this year, both project as high reward picks. Recently, Vanderbilt has had a good track record of producing above average pitchers at the major league level. Sonny Gray, David Price, and Mike Minor (when healthy) have all proved themselves, and last year the Giants selected Tyler Beede 14th overall.
The rankings of these players are likely to shift throughout the next few weeks, but regardless of where certain players go, it's going to be an exciting draft. The Astros have two picks in the top five, and as every team knows, there are potential franchise altering players waiting to be drafted.