Whoever signs Yoenis Cespedes is going to be very disappointed

The discussion seems to never end about Yoenis Cespedes, and whether he deserves the NL MVP award. On the one hand, I kind of get it. The Mets are in contention and the Nationals aren't, and since Bryce Harper (the rightful NL MVP) has almost singlehandedly willed them above .500, Cespedes is the most directly comparable position player. And certainly, the Mets took off after he arrived, winning 29 of 41 games since August 1, the best in the National League.

And, yes, Cespedes has been driving a lot of that success, hitting an astounding .302/.352/.676 (that is still somehow lower than Harper's OPS). He has been incredible, and is poised to become one of the most sought-after free agents this offseason when the Mets are finally forced to turn him loose.

Which, they might not. As we detailed earlier this week, Cespedes and the Mets have agreed to adjust his current contract to allow the club to bid on him during the exclusive negotiating window after the end of the season, and to be allowed to participate in the negotiations for him this offseason. Unless the Mets' famous cheapness gets in the way, they figure to be major players for him and for second baseman Daniel Murphy.

We've also heard that the Braves are expected to be major players for Cespedes once the bidding really gets going. Meanwhile, the Orioles, Angels, Rangers, Padres, Giants, Cubs, and even Tigers are potentially big spending teams who could target outfield help this winter. Indeed, the market for Cespedes will certainly be lively.

Which, ultimately, is going to make someone very disappointed. Of course, at this point, we understand that free agents are inherently overpaid on the open market, which trades overpaying a player later for what they're likely to do immediately. But I'm not talking about Cespedes being overpaid by a few million at the end of his contract. I'm talking about him immediately being the kind of disappointment that can burden a franchise right away.

Prior to 2015, Cespedes had put in three full seasons with the Oakland A's and the Boston Red Sox. He had hit .263/.316/.464, which was good for a 116 OPS+ in 1759 plate appearances. That's solid. Combined with plus defense from an outfield corner (or with a penalty for sub-par defense in center), Cespedes was worth somewhere around three wins per year going into his late 20s. In fact, up until he was traded to the Mets, he was exactly the same player he had always been. Take a look:

Until he got to Queens, Cespedes was having a thoroughly average season for him. His raw numbers were slightly higher, thanks to a .331 BABIP that dwarfed his previous performances (which came because he was hitting more balls on the ground than ever before), but under it all, he was exactly the same hitter. Virtually all of Cespedes's gains, then, have come since he joined the Mets.

Now, listen. We have 2,186 plate appearances that tell us that Cespedes is one thing. Now we have a shade under 200 telling us he is something fundamentally different. If you were a betting person, which would you go assume you're likelier to get going forward? I know which I'd pick.

The point isn't that Cespedes is a bad player. The point is that he isn't THIS player, the player that the world seems to be fawning over. He's not the player who's going to be worth $18-20 million per year. He likely won't even be worth $15 million, especially now that he's on the wrong side of 30. But that's what he's going to get in the hyper-competitive free agent market. Cespedes's next employer (or his current one) is going to wind up paying him like he's Matt Holliday, and what they're going to get is more likely to get is a right-handed Andre Ethier. And while Ethier definitely has value, like Cespedes he shouldn't be winning MVPs anytime soon. Nor should he be paid like one.