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MLB's Offseason Analysis Chapter 1: October



Waiver Claims and Important Outrights

Once the regular season ends, teams do some serious roster trimming. Typically, five to ten players are given the boot between the last day of the regular season and the end of the world series. A vast majority of those players clear waivers and elect minor league free agency, however that is not what this article will be focusing on. At this time of the year, the only reason a team would typically claim a player is if they felt that the player would not get through waivers to become a free agent, or had additional service time if outrighted.

On October 5th, three days after the season concluded, the Los Angeles Angels made the first set of moves. Right-Handed Pitchers Kirby Yates and Blake Parker were claimed off of waivers from the New York Yankees. Yates,bounced around quite a bit last offseason, as he was a Rule V roster casualty of the Rays, found himself in Cleveland and later as a Yankee. Parker was a midseason claim from Seattle. Both pitchers quietly had stellar seasons for the Yankees. Yates, despite a rough 5.23 ERA, posted a 3.97 FIP in the major leagues while throwing nearly 98 mph! His 10.89 K/9 was robust as well. In the minor leagues, he fared much better posting a 1.62 ERA with a 2.15 FIP. Parker’s numbers don’t look that great, however if you subtract 0.1 innings of 4 run ball, he has a shiny 2.81 ERA over 17 innings as a reliever. Both stand a strong chance to continue their success, as they raised their ground ball percentages substantially in 2016, into the mid 40% range. Yates has more upside, with a lower floor. Due to his absurd fastball, he could wind up as a high leverage set-up man, and while Parker doesn’t come with that kind of a ceiling, he has the makings of a very efficient and reliable middle reliever. Both pitchers are out of options in 2017, therefore, there is a chance that they find themselves back on the wire in short order, however the Angels are a pitching starved organization and are set to cut a good amount of dead weight that they currently have, including relievers Brett Oberholtzer and Cory Rasmus(possible non-tenders). Bedrosian is a lock, J.C. Ramirez and Deolis Guerra seem as if they are likely to make it as well and while Street struggled in 2016, he is more than likely to start the season with the club, leaving one (possibly two, if the Angels decide to go with one lefty) spot up for grabs between Yates, Parker, Mike Morin and Jose Valdez. Morin is the only player that has options remaining, however, considering the Angels have such a depleted farm system, it is conceivable that Cam Bedrosian could find himself on the move at some point this offseason. A few weeks later, on the 28th, they threw another name into the mix to compete for a spot, and that was 24-year old Abel De Los Santos. They claimed him from Cincy, and he makes for a high upside claim. I don't believe De Los Santos will break camp with the Halos, but I see him acting as an essential taxi squad member in the early going, eventually cementing his place in a weak bullpen due to his ability to touch 96 and his strikeout stuff. The biggest factor working against him this spring is the fact that he has options, however he makes for a very stellar claim.

The Angels weren't the only team to strike on October 5th though. The Pittsburgh Pirates made a minor transaction of their own. AA reliever Brady Dragmire was acquired after being designated by assignment by Toronto. It was a cash deal. Dragmire is a depth player at this point in his career. He really has some uninspiring results in his first season of the upper minor leagues across the board from his bottom line numbers to his peripherals. If outrighted, he has one additional season of team control, and I personally believe he will find himself off of the 40-man roster soon enough. Quite frankly, I’m shocked he didn’t clear the first time, however, we could be looking at a classic-Jayson Aquino case. Aquino was too a prospect added to the 40-man roster early, however changed uniforms via the waiver wire five times since the beginning of 2015 (Colorado to Toronto to Pittsburgh to Cleveland to St. Louis to Baltimore) and he remains on the 40-man roster, finally projected to get his chance this coming season.

Another pitched acquired via waivers was Left-Hander Jed Bradley . Bradley went from Atlanta to Baltimore, after finally finding himself in AAA-Gwinnett and making his major league debut for the Braves in 2016. While he struggled a bit, that was to be expected as he had hardly pitched at AAA prior to 2016. Overall, it will just be about him finding his control as a reliever, as he certainly has the stuff to rack up strikeouts. Due to the fact that he has some additional control, it wouldn’t be overly shocking to see him sent outright to Norfolk and come to camp as a non-roster invitee. He may need just a tad more seasoning at AAA, however he could be a very solid left-handed reliever.

There were two major highlights in my eyes in regard to waiver claims and they were Arismendy Alcantara and Rymer Liriano. Alcantara is the kind of player who you typically will not find on the waiver wire. A former top 100 prospect, Alcantara stole 32 bases and hit 12 home runs in AAA this past season while posting a .792 OPS. While his average has never translated to the major leagues, his tools certainly do, as he has hit 10 home runs in around 350 PA’s. He has also stolen 12 bases in the majors as well. I read an interesting article today on Redleg Nation comparing Alcantara to Brandon Phillips at that age and the number similarities are exceptionally shocking. With Alcantara’s versatility, he should not be too hard pressed to find a job in the Red’s organization, despite being out of options. Especially considering the Cozart trade rumors. Alcantara could turn out to be one of the better buy-low pick-ups of the offseason. Liriano landed in the perfect spot, as he was claimed by the Chicago White Sox. According to Roster Resource (subject to change), Liriano is already projected to hold down a bench spot. On top of that, two of the five outfielders on the 25 man roster project to be Non-tendered (Avi Garcia and JB Shuck) and Melky Cabrera seems likely to be shifted to a DH role. Liriano could very well find himself in the starting line-up on Opening Day. Rymer was a top 100 prospect for San Diego from 2012-2013 and found himself traded to Milwaukee For Trevor Seidenberger. He missed the 2016 season after taking a fastball to the face from Dodgers reliever Matt West late in Spring Training. Liriano has abundant tools and could be either a solid lead off or three hole hitter if he realizes his potential. It is surprising that anyone passed on him.

Sometimes, good players pass through the wire at this time of year. An example that I typically go back to is when Dixon Machado cleared waivers a few years ago. Reasons for this differ. Two righties, J.B. Wendelken and Jon Moscot, cleared due to Tommy John. Both pitchers have some additional control, as neither will become free agents until after the 2018 season since being outrighted giving them plenty of time to come back. Wendelken has the upside of a low-leverage set-up man, as he has the ability to hit 95. While he isn’t likely an impact player, he’s the type of guy who the A’s might appreciate being able to have held onto him after he returns from Tommy John Surgery. Moscot isn’t a power pitcher, doesn’t have high strikeout numbers and has never posted great numbers at the major league level, however he has ranked as a top 20 prospect for Cincy (C+) in the past and has profiled as a potential mid-rotation starter. I’m a bit bearish on that projection, to be honest, however I do believe that he could still be a decent swing man/5th starter type for a team that needs some innings. He should be back by the end of the 2017 season with the Reds. He has the potential to eat up some innings down the stretch. The Reds were also able to pass the 2016 king of the waiver wire, corner infielder Patrick Kivlehan through waivers. Kivlehan, a former Mariners farmhand, was traded to Texas in the Leonys Martin deal and was later claimed back off of waivers by Seattle. Over time, he was passed on to the San Diego Padres and then eventually to the Reds. Kivlehan has shown some impressive power, however does strike out quite a bit. Due to his advanced age (as he was drafted out of college and was relatively new to baseball) and his potentially low batting average, he seems like a power bench bat type of guy, think Matt Stairs. Power off of the bench is an essential late in games. Kivlehan will remain under team control through 2018. The Phillies and Braves each lucked out with a pair of arms getting through. The Braves sent two lefties, Matt Marksberry and Andrew McKirahan through, while the Phillies got righties Colton Murray and Dalier Hinojosa to the minors. Marksberry is under team control through 2019! A team could have had three seasons of stellar minor league left handed relief depth for $20,000!! Marksberry hit 95 in 2015, but was down to 93 last season. Personally, I think the elbow discomfort that kept his season to 3.1 innings was the culprit. I can see Marksberry throwing 94 consistently. His K/BB numbers have been relatively consistent through his career since 2013, therefore I would anticipate that he would continue to maintain that. McKirahan has had some issues staying on the field. A Rule V pick by Miami in 2015, he was claimed off of waivers by the Braves and suspended 80 games for PEDs. While his ERA in 2015 was not that great, his FIP (3.79) was very stellar and it is impressive that a lefty can throw nearly 96. I would love to see what he could do on a full season. He should be 100% this season and could become an effective weapon out of the Braves pen sooner rather than later. As for the Phillies guys, Murray has the ceiling of a low-leverage set-up man. He’s young, can throw 97 and doesn’t walk too many batters. Honestly, for him, I think it’s simply a matter of time until he adjusts to the big leagues and starts making a name for himself, as long as he is granted an opportunity in 2017. He will likely be in spring training as a non-roster invitee.

Dalier Hinojosa deserves his own paragraph. Hinojosa finds himself off of the 40-man roster despite pitching at an exceptionally high level in both the major leagues and minor leagues for the Phillies and Red Sox. Despite being 30 years old, Hinojosa has very little downside. His highest ERA of his MLB (and MiLB) career is 3.79 in AAA Pawtucket immediately after signing with Boston for $4,250,000. He has the ability to hit 97 and could be a major league closer. There is no reason for him not to be on a team’s 40-man roster and I would certainly imagine that he could be a Rule V candidate.


Minor League Signings

So, I’ll get to the notable ones in one minute, however I’m going to start with the Indy Ball guys. Miami starts it off by signing Outfielder Dalton Wheat (Baseball America’s top Indy Ball prospect for 2016), Catcher Corey Bass, Third Baseman David Vidal and Right-Handed Pitcher Ryan Beckman to minor league contracts. Wheat isn’t bad, however I think BA is overrating him a bit. For a team with as poor of a farm system as Miami, Wheat is a legitimate pick-up. Beckman was a former Pirates farmhand and was released despite pitching well in AA Altoona, however he began starting in the American Association and posting legitimate results. His biggest issue is that he’s not a high strikeout low walk guy and that hurts his major league potential. I see him as more of a relief depth piece for now, but he could make for a decent minor league reliever. Bass has real power for a catcher and exhibits good plate discipline, however the thing that is going to keep him from making a significant impact is his ability to hit for average. He hit just under 260 in an otherwise solid campaign and translated to affiliated ball, that may not come out as palatable. The Marlins also added 27 year old Infielder David Vidal out of the Atlantic League. Vidal offers significant power, however it remains to be seen whether he can repeat his monster 2016 campaign. He will likely be assigned to AA Jacksonville.

The Cincinnati Reds have agreed to terms with First Baseman Art Charles, who spent 2016 in the CanAm League. Art Charles was my #1 Indy League Prospect this offseason after posting a league leading .352/.461/.699 line with 29 homers and 101 RBIs over 436 PA's. He was ranked 2nd by Baseball America. While he struck out 92 times in 96 games, he makes up for it with his plate discipline (66 walks and 10 HBPs). He could serve in a power bench bat capacity for the Reds at some point this season, especially if incumbent first baseman Joey Votto finds himself on the move. It has not yet been announced whether he will receive an invitation to Spring Training. If he does, his main competitors for the role of "power bench bat" will be Patrick Kivlehan and Steve Selsky, however while he should be considered a long shot to break camp with the big league club, a major league debut isn't completely out of the question for the soon to be 26 year old.
The Phillies signed a Left-Handed Reliever named Casey Jones from the Frontier League. He posted a 3.85 ERA, however, he also posted underwhelming Strikeout and Walk Numbers. His walk rate (4.7) was exceptionally high, without being bailed out by his strikeout rating (7.7), He is a hometown guy, therefore I do not anticipate him acting as anything more than minor league depth. The Yankees made a significant Indy signing in Righty Matt Wivinis. He posted a sub 2 ERA as a reliever this past season and will likely head to A ball. He’s a guy who slipped under the radar for me.

Two more guys, Hawtin Buchanan and Kevin Davidson, signed with the Chicago White Sox and Cincinnati Reds respectively. Buchanan was released by the Mariners at the end of Spring Training, but went to the USPB league, and started throwing 94-96. He will likely head to LoA for the Reds. First Baseman Kevin Davidson is the brother of Matt Davidson, also on the White Sox. He was an undrafted free agent this season, and was likely signed as a favor by the White Sox organization. He was assigned to the AZL White Sox. Another Indy League first baseman will make their way to Chicago, as the White Sox also signed K.C. Hobson, formerly of the Toronto Blue Jays and more recently, the Lancaster Barnstormers. Hobson was cut by Toronto mid-season, however posted an absurd .320/.394/.570 line in the Indy Leagues with 24 home runs. He will likely be assigned to Class-AA.

The Brewers added Right-Handed Pitcher Chad Nading of the Wichita Wingnuts. Nading was out of the game after 2012 after struggling for 3 seasons with the rookie league affiliates, however returned in 2016 and was lights out. He could make for an interesting story.

A pair of arms out of the Mexican League made their way to other teams in the AL-Central on Minor League Deals. Left-Handed Pitcher Onelki Garcia inked a minor league deal with the Kansas City Royals. Garcia, a former Dodgers’ farmhand is noted for his big fastball, touching 95.5 at it’s peak in the majors in 2013 (per fangraphs). Garcia missed 2014 with injury and spent 2015 in the White Sox organization after a waiver claim. He was released after struggling between AA and AAA and latched on with the Mexican League for 2016 posting a stellar 3.83 ERA. He will likely be assigned to the upper minors to assimilate himself to the speed of affiliated ball before he is given a chance to pitch for the Royals. Another former White-Sox pitcher, Righty Arcenio Leon, latched on with the Detroit Tigers on a Minor League deal. Leon scuffled in his last brief taste of affiliated ball with the White Sox back in 2015, however seemed to find himself, as Garcia did, in the Mexican League, where he posted a 3.30 ERA. He will likely provide the Tigers with some high-minor league relief depth and could be given an opportunity sooner rather than later if Tigers’ GM Al Avila is serious about his plans to blow the organization up.

There have been three significant minor league contract signings over the past few weeks, all have been by the Atlanta Braves. The first one was Catcher/First Baseman Blake Lalli. Lalli was outrighted and elected free agency about a week ago, but apparently enjoyed his time in Atlanta enough to re-sign in short order. He spent a very limited time on the major league roster posting a weak .154/.154/.231 line with a 2 OPS+. With the Braves embarking on a public search to upgrade at catcher this offseason, it seems unlikely that he plays too much in the bigs this season. Left-Handed Reliever Sam Freeman, signed a few days back after electing to become a free agent earlier this month after being outrighted by Milwaukee. Freeman is an intriguing case. He was a well above average reliever from 2013-2015 posting a 144 ERA+ (Making him 44% more productive than the average reliever). He struggled mightily in 2016 for Milwaukee posting an ERA above 12! Most of that however was the result of a 57% strand rate as well as a BABIP over 400. Despite control issues, I believe Freeman could utilize his 97 mph fastball upon making the Braves roster to put together a solid rebound campaign. As of right now, he stands a strong chance to break camp with Atlanta as left handed options behind Ian Krol are few and far between. Finally, the Braves re-signed Outfielder Matt Tuiasosopo to a Minor League Contract. Tuiasosopo has some solid power. In AAA-Gwinnett, he posted a .483 slugging percentage which is in line with his past two minor league slugging percentages (.447 and .497 respectively). He’s not going to hit for much average, but if there are some injuries, he could provide some solid power off of the bench upon receiving a call-up.

One intriguing signing came out of Seattle. The Mariners signed two-way veteran Micah Owings. Owings played for York of the Atlantic League in 2016, the first time he has pitched competitively since 2014, in which he pitched in 2 games amounting for a total of 8.1 innings for the Marlins’ AA affiliate. He posted a 4.30 ERA with pedestrian strikeout (6.8) and walk numbers (3.2). Owings probably won’t be able to break camp with the Mariners, as the Mariners have 11 strong relief options, 8 with minor league options, currently on their 40-man roster, excluding Wilhelmsen and Cook who are projected non-tender candidates. That’s not even taking into account any additions that the Mariners make as the offseason progresses. He seems likely to serve as a player/coach down in Tacoma. He certainly makes for an interesting story going into Mariner’s camp.

As a final blurb, the Angels inked 20-year old Lefty Jorge Gonzalez to a minors contract. He struggled for two seasons in rookie league for the Dodgers and I do not believe he serves as more than minor league depth.

Conclusion

A month into the offseason, we've seen limited movement that will likely pick up over the next two to three weeks, however, the early winners to me are the Cincinnati Reds. As a small market team in a rebuilding state, they aren't going to make waves this offseason. A Cozart trade or possible a Phillips deal could happen, but other than that, they will likely just attempt to catch lightning in a bottle with low cost acquisitions and Arismendy Alcantara and Art Charles are two of the most promising players they could have ever hoped to acquire as cheap as they did. Buchanan, while not quite as likely to pitch in the bigs in 2017 is a solid depth signing. It is also worth mentioning that Cincinnati just signed a 15 year TV deal. Despite losing out on Abel De Los Santos, and John Lamb, the three additions are very strong.

Some honorable mentions: The White Sox are a close second with the acquisition of Outfielder Rymer Liriano. Liriano is similar to Alcantara, as he is a young, toolsy, high ceiling player who has the potential to become a waiver wire gem. What gives the Reds the edge was the simple fact that the Reds also added Charles, who could potentially have a major league impact, and the additions of K.C. Hobson and Kevin Davidson are simply just depth additions. Third place goes to the Angels for their low cost acquisitions of Kirby Yates, a high upside reliever, Blake Parker, a stable middle reliever and Abel De Los Santos, a young, high upside fireballer with options. Finally, I commend the Braves on the addition of Sam Freeman. While Lalli and Tuiasosopo were simply depth additions, however, Freeman has a legitimate chance to break camp with the Braves.



****Just as a disclaimed-- all velocities that I made reference to are referring to maxvelo

Sources: BR, Fangraphs, MLB TR, any linked articles

All opinions are my own*******************************************************************

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of MLBDD's writers or editors.

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