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Good morning baseball fans!
Is there a fair price for Mike Trout? Our Mike Bates says no.
No, to make dealing Trout worth it, the Angels would have to pick up at least two players who are going to be consistently worth an average of something like five wins over the next five years, or three players worth an average of four wins per year or more and the list of those players, especially those in the same organization and who would be realistic targets, is incredibly short. Like, for reference, only 33 players were worth five wins or better in 2015, according to Fangraphs, and only 57 were worth better than four wins. And many of those can't be counted on to reproduce their incredible numbers, simply because it's hard to be that great year in and year out.
And that's before we even get into what it would cost to pay to keep any all star caliber players the Angels acquired as they gained service time. Or the risk of two or three or four players staying healthy, as opposed to one.
Look, the point is that it's almost impossible to trade Trout for what would be an acceptable return in 2016. He's not just a long term building block, he's practically the damn building. He's the closest you can get to having a one-man team. This is a fun thought exercise, but even though the Angels may be in a bad spot now, they'd be in an even worse one if they tried to move the best player in baseball to restock an aging team.
The latest episode of The Rosterbatorical came out yesterday, you can listen to it through the player below.
Baltimore is interested in Dexter Fowler, Pedro Alvarez and Jay Bruce, which means they may add an offensive piece after getting Yovani Gallardo.
The Pirates signed Eric O'Flaherty and Cory Luebke to minor-league deals.
Ian Desmond could be an option for the White Sox, who are considering the shortstop.
The Dodgers are trying to trade Alex Guerrero.
Dan Weigel of Beyond the Box Score examines if Shohei Otani is the best right-handed pitcher in the world.
Otani’s outstanding lower half is supported well by the upper half, most notably the arm path. After breaking the hands, the Fighters’ star avoids a long, loopy path by keeping his elbow flexed and hand on top of the ball through internal rotation, demonstrates significant flexibility through shoulder external rotation, and displays a long deceleration path from ball release to his opposite hip. Additionally, the 20-year-old is also able to find power through a powerful and aggressive shoulder rotation, helped in part by a strong pull back from the glove hand. This is an elite delivery using all parts of the body to generate power and featuring enough balance to repeat 100 times per game.
The remaining question, and the possible $200 million question for MLB teams, is will he be posted, and if so, when?
Kazuto Yamazaki, who writes frequently about NPB, reasons that the Fighters have little motivation to post him before the 2019 offseason. In a recent piece, Yamazaki notes that with the current Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) set to expire on December 1 of the current year, the new CBA could change the posting rules and consequently affect Otani’s projected timetable.
If and when Otani is posted, expect a bidding war unlike any other for the Japanese ace, who seems poised to reach the $200 million threshold. Until then, expect Otani to continue to dominate for the Fighters, lead the Japanese National Team in international competitions, and if he is not already, make a strong case to earning the title of the best right-handed pitcher in the world.
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Today in Baseball History: In 1981, Carlton Fisk is declared a free agent by arbitrator Raymond Goetz on grounds that the Red Sox mailed his contract two days after the December 20 deadline.