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We’re back with another installment of our weekly playoff odds. As always, you can click this link and it will take you to the series intro and a primer on how playoff odds work. You can also click here to take you to the introduction to a new feature for series.
Let’s get to the odds!
AL East
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Photo and graph courtesy of Fangraphs
Still a two man race. It will stay this way. Which one makes a big move first? This race is the only drama in this division. I expect the other three teams to start selling.
AL Central
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Photo and graph courtesy of Fangraphs
The Indians currently hold a 4.5 game lead over the Tigers and, as has been the case all year, the odds make Cleveland the extreme favorite to hold. I suspect eventually, the Indians will make this one of the most uninteresting races of the season.
AL West
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Photo and graph courtesy of Fangraphs
Houston took back the lead in the division, even if by only 0.5 games. Seattle has regression concerns and as you can see, the odds still heavily favor the Astros. All that talent still matters, but Seattle is making it interesting.
NL East
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Photo and graph courtesy of Fangraphs
Braves keep on keeping on. They keep rising in the odds every week and keep maintaining first place in the NL East. Like the Astros, the Nationals are the heavy favorites because of talent but this is clearly a race. The Phillies are struggling to keep pace and have dropped back to 4.0 games back. The Mets keep falling and falling. You would think rock bottom is soon.
NL Central
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Photo and graph courtesy of Fangraphs
The Brewers grew their lead over the last week to 1.5 games after an impressive showing head-to-head with the Cubs. The Cardinals are just kind of hanging around and it feels like their going to make a big move at some point. This looks like a 3 teams race and could be decided by the moves made in the next 6 weeks.
NL West
- Dodgers 77.1%
- Diamondbacks 41.3%
- Rockies 13.7%
- Giants 8.9%
- Padres 0.6%
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Photo and graph courtesy of Fangraphs
The Diamondbacks hold a 2.5 game lead in this division over the Dodgers while the Giants and the Rockies have fallen back a bit. The odds still think LA is going to win this race by 5+ games and they have been playing better lately. But the last place team in this division is only 6.5 games back, and odds are one or more of these other 4 teams is going to be able to keep it close all year.
Top 5 gainers since last week
- Mariners 17.1%
- Diamondbacks 12.6%
- Brewers 10.5%
- Braves 9.1%
- Dodgers 6.6%
Out of all the surprises this year, it looks like 3 of them are for real. The Mariners, Brewers, and Braves. All have kept up with, or exceeded, the favorites in their divisions and all have belief that they are real. The Mariners show the biggest threat of regression but that isn’t a given. The Braves are about to benefit from a weaker schedule and could cement themselves a contender in 2018. The NL West is starting to look like a 2 team race.
Top 5 losers since last week
- Angels -13.1%
- Rockies -10.7%
- Cardinals -9.5%
- Giants -8.9%
- Mets -7.1%
Some big drops this week as teams struggle to keep pace with the leaders. The Angels have the misfortune of playing in a division with two teams on pace for 100 wins. The Rockies and Giants have dropped to tier below the top two teams and the Mets are free falling. The only team here I wouldn’t worry much about is the Cardinals. They’re going to be in all year.
In-Season stats based odds
You can click the link up at the top to last week’s post to see the intro and primer for in-season based odds.
AL East
- Yankees 95.7%
- Red Sox 95.0%
- Rays 5.9%
- Blue Jays 2.0%
- Orioles 0.0%
AL Central
- Indians 78.7%
- Twins 17.8%
- Tigers 7.2%
- White Sox 0.4%
- Royals 0.3%
AL West
- Astros 95.9%
- Mariners 66.8%
- Angles 25.4%
- Athletics 8.9%
- Rangers 0.2%
NL East
- Braves 75.9%
- Nationals 67.6%
- Phillies 26.9%
- Mets 1.4%
- Marlins 0.0%
NL Central
- Cubs 82.5%
- Brewers 68.2%
- Cardinals 26.1%
- Pirates 10.9%
- Reds 0.0%
NL West
- Diamondback 64.6%
- Dodgers 54.4%
- Giants 13.4%
- Rockies 4.6%
- Padres 3.1%