clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

Weekly MLB Playoff Odds: The Cardinals playoff odds are trending in the wrong direction

New, comment

We’re approaching the half way mark of the 2018 season and the playoff odds are settling in a little bit. The Braves remain the big gainers of the week while the Cardinals saw the biggest drop.

MLB: Atlanta Braves at Toronto Blue Jays John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports

We’re back with another installment of our weekly playoff odds. As always, you can click this link and it will take you to the series intro and a primer on how playoff odds work.

Let’s get to the odds!

AL East

Photo and graph courtesy of Fangraphs

Rinse and repeat. Two teams fighting for the right to not to have to play in a Wild Card game. Blue Jays made a little noise this week, but no where near enough.

AL Central

Photo and graph courtesy of Fangraphs

Keep waiting for the Indians to just take off and leave everyone and it’s just not happening. They do have a 5 game lead in the division but the talent gap here should mean a much bigger lead. Give credit to Minnesota and Detroit for continuing to fight.

AL West

Photo and graph courtesy of Fangraphs

Houston absolutely took off this week and have built up a 3.5 game lead in this division. Seattle saw it’s first slide of the season and is now going to have to dig deep to stay in the light. Houston isn’t going to let up.

NL East

Photo and graph courtesy of Fangraphs

The Nationals made the first big trade in this race as they picked up Kelvin Herrera but their offense is really struggling. Especially Bryce Harper. Meanwhile the Braves just keep going. Another solid week and their odds keep going up. They get two last place teams in their next 6. The Phillies also made a strong move this week. The Mets are slowly dying.

NL Central

Photo and graph courtesy of Fangraphs

As the Brewers and Cubs keep battling for that top spot, the Cardinals had a rough week. They fallen to 5.5 games back and I’m guessing they’ll be making a move to get a spark. The Brewers, like Atlanta, are slowly gaining the respect of the projections.

NL West

Photo and graph courtesy of Fangraphs

The closest division in baseball keeps on keeping on. The 4th place Rockies are only 4.5 games back of 1st place and it’s literally anyone’s game. Projections still love the Dodgers because of the baseline talent but that only counts for so much for so long.

Top 5 gainers since last week

  • Braves +10.0%
  • Phillies +7.8%
  • Athletics 4.4%
  • Indians 0.9%
  • Blue Jays 0.9%

For these two sections of the update, we’re going to start seeing smaller gainers and losers. Good teams are good, bad teams are bad, and the odds just aren’t going to change much. Where we will see change is with the Braves as they are our top gainer this week. As long as they keep winning, their odds have to keep improving. The other 4 teams on this list either have less than a 20% chance to make the playoffs, or (for the Indians) more than 95% chance of making it. We might have to rename this section the Braves and Brewers watch.

Top 5 losers since last week

  • Cardinals -10.2%
  • Mariners -7.4%
  • Nationals -2.9%
  • Brewers -2.9%
  • Pirates -2.3%

Again, the drops are going to start decreasing in magnitude. The Cardinals have lost touch with the leaders in the Central and are going to need to make a move. The Mariners ran into their first tough stretch in a while and Houston surged at the same time. The Nationals will remain in this section as long as Atlanta keeps winning. The Brewers and the Cubs will probably flip- flop being here each week depending on who’s hot or not.

In-Season stats based odds

You can click the link here for the primer for in-season based odds.

AL East

  • Yankees 98.1%
  • Red Sox 95.0%
  • Rays 4.1%
  • Blue Jays 2.1%
  • Orioles 0.0%

AL Central

  • Indians 79.9%
  • Twins 20.1%
  • Tigers 6.9%
  • White Sox 0.1%
  • Royals 0.0%

AL West

  • Astros 97.9%
  • Mariners 57.5%
  • Angles 23.2%
  • Athletics 14.9%
  • Rangers 0.4%

NL East

  • Braves 79.8%
  • Nationals 58.4%
  • Phillies 30.4%
  • Mets 1.2%
  • Marlins 0.0%

NL Central

  • Cubs 85.4%
  • Brewers 78.3%
  • Cardinals 17.0%
  • Pirates 8.2%
  • Reds 0.4%

NL West

  • Diamondback 70.4%
  • Dodgers 49.8%
  • Giants 14.4%
  • Rockies 4.8%
  • Padres 1.4%