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Weekly Playoff Odds: Mariners surge while Nationals fall

We’re through the half-way point of the season and the contenders and pretenders are starting to separate themselves. Let’s look at who has gained and lost the most ground in the past couple of weeks.

MLB: Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Mariners Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports

All stats are as of 7/6/14

We’re back with another installment of our weekly playoff odds. Sorry for missing last week but fear not, we have the updated odds. As always, you can click this link and it will take you to the series intro and a primer on how playoff odds work.

Let’s get to the odds!

AL East

Photo and graph courtesy of Fangraphs

We continue on the path to having a 100 win Wild Card team. I’m not sure how I feel about that but however I feel, I’m sure Boston or New York will feel worse. The only drama at the bottom of this division is who can sell off the most assets for the best returns.

AL Central

Photo and graph courtesy of Fangraphs

This is very quickly becoming the most lopsided division in recent memory. If Cleveland plays to their potential, they might when this thing by 20 or 30 games. Minnesota has been disappointing this year and now have some of their best player back in the minors.

AL West

Photo and graph courtesy of Fangraphs

What was a 4 team race for a while has turned into a two-team battle. Houston should win the division just based on talent but Seattle keeps winning one-run games. Seattle should at the very least be in the wild card game with the loser of the AL East. Oakland is going to have some interesting choices at the deadline, while it looks like it’s going to be another year without Mike Trout in the playoffs. Sigh.

NL East

Photo and graph courtesy of Fangraphs

The Nationals keep losing, although they had a huge comeback last night, while the Braves and Phillies keep making it a thing. There will be some deadline buying among this group and it may decide who wins the East. The Mets remain unbelievably bad. Will they sell some of their better players?

NL Central

Photo and graph courtesy of Fangraphs

The Brewers keep winning and their odds keep going up. They’re up to 75% chance to make the playoffs now and plenty of people are wondering who they will add in July. Meanwhile the Cardinals have run into a wall. It will be very interesting to see what St. Louis does this month. Pittsburgh had a nice start but reality has set in.

NL West

Photo and graph courtesy of Fangraphs

The Giants and the Rockies are only 3.5 games back in this division but the odds see a two man race. The Dodgers are getting healthy and if they play to their potential, it might be a one man race. Arizona is making noise with some interesting trade chatter. This division will be fun to track all year.

Top 5 gainers last 2 weeks

  • Mariners +23.7%
  • Phillies +18.7%
  • Brewers +12.3%
  • Dodgers +10.3%
  • Cardinals +2.3%

Well we weren’t here last week to track so we’re doing biggest gainers the last 2 weeks this time. Seattle’s odds keeping going up because one, they keep winning an staying in touch with Houston in the division and two, they’ve given themselves such a large margin in second wild card spot. The Phillies are playing terrific baseball and with Washington playing so poorly and Atlanta playing around .500, Philadelphia’s odds keep going up. The Brewers have been winning all year and the odds are still playing catch-up while LA is starting to get themselves on track.

Top 5 losers last 2 weeks

  • Nationals -25.6%
  • Angels -20.4%
  • Diamondbacks -8.0%
  • Twins -5.0%
  • Pirates -4.2%

The Nationals are the main story here as the loses keep piling up. Atlanta and Philadelphia aren’t going anywhere. The Angels are playing in an incredibly tough division and have lost touch with the leaders. Arizona’s drop has mostly to due with LA’s resurgence. The Twins and the Pirates are two teams who weren’t really expected to win and have now come back down to reality.

In-Season stats based odds

You can click the link here for the primer for in-season based odds.

AL East

  • Yankees 98.7%
  • Red Sox 97.6%
  • Rays 8.9%
  • Blue Jays 0.6%
  • Orioles 0.0%

AL Central

  • Indians 96.5%
  • Twins 3.6%
  • Tigers 0.5%
  • White Sox 0.0%
  • Royals 0.0%

AL West

  • Astros 98.4%
  • Mariners 75.1%
  • Angles 16.5%
  • Athletics 3.1%
  • Rangers 0.4%

NL East

  • Braves 76.4%
  • Phillies 47.5%
  • Nationals 27.3%
  • Mets 0.2%
  • Marlins 0.1%

NL Central

  • Cubs 87.8%
  • Brewers 81.9%
  • Cardinals 28.3%
  • Pirates 2.3%
  • Reds 2.0%

NL West

  • Dodgers 71.2%
  • Diamondbacks 56.2%
  • Giants 10.6%
  • Rockies 7.7%
  • Padres 0.4%